Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure through 2026, driven by entrenched treaty barriers requiring unanimous member state consent for dissolution and no Article 50 withdrawal invocations since Brexit. Recent EU actions reinforce stability, including the April 2026 agreement on single market overhauls by 2027, 2026 budget priorities emphasizing resilience and defense amid geopolitical strains, and emissions reductions signaling policy continuity. Polexit rhetoric in Poland persists amid populist gains, but polls show 73% public support for membership versus 22% for exit, underscoring broad backing. Realistic shifts would demand cascading crises like a eurozone debt collapse, multiple simultaneous withdrawals, or war-induced fragmentation, though structural interdependence and enlargement talks with Ukraine limit such risks before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於歐盟在2027年之前解體？
歐盟在2027年之前解體？
是
$164,109 交易量
$164,109 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$164,109 交易量
$164,109 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure through 2026, driven by entrenched treaty barriers requiring unanimous member state consent for dissolution and no Article 50 withdrawal invocations since Brexit. Recent EU actions reinforce stability, including the April 2026 agreement on single market overhauls by 2027, 2026 budget priorities emphasizing resilience and defense amid geopolitical strains, and emissions reductions signaling policy continuity. Polexit rhetoric in Poland persists amid populist gains, but polls show 73% public support for membership versus 22% for exit, underscoring broad backing. Realistic shifts would demand cascading crises like a eurozone debt collapse, multiple simultaneous withdrawals, or war-induced fragmentation, though structural interdependence and enlargement talks with Ukraine limit such risks before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$164,109結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure through 2026, driven by entrenched treaty barriers requiring unanimous member state consent for dissolution and no Article 50 withdrawal invocations since Brexit. Recent EU actions reinforce stability, including the April 2026 agreement on single market overhauls by 2027, 2026 budget priorities emphasizing resilience and defense amid geopolitical strains, and emissions reductions signaling policy continuity. Polexit rhetoric in Poland persists amid populist gains, but polls show 73% public support for membership versus 22% for exit, underscoring broad backing. Realistic shifts would demand cascading crises like a eurozone debt collapse, multiple simultaneous withdrawals, or war-induced fragmentation, though structural interdependence and enlargement talks with Ukraine limit such risks before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$164,109結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure through 2026, driven by entrenched treaty barriers requiring unanimous member state consent for dissolution and no Article 50 withdrawal invocations since Brexit. Recent EU actions reinforce stability, including the April 2026 agreement on single market overhauls by 2027, 2026 budget priorities emphasizing resilience and defense amid geopolitical strains, and emissions reductions signaling policy continuity. Polexit rhetoric in Poland persists amid populist gains, but polls show 73% public support for membership versus 22% for exit, underscoring broad backing. Realistic shifts would demand cascading crises like a eurozone debt collapse, multiple simultaneous withdrawals, or war-induced fragmentation, though structural interdependence and enlargement talks with Ukraine limit such risks before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions