The EU's treaty-based structure, requiring unanimous member-state consent for fundamental changes and exit procedures under the Lisbon Treaty, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. No member state has launched withdrawal processes, and even sovereigntist parties such as France's National Rally have abandoned exit pledges in favor of internal reform efforts. Upcoming national votes, including Spain's November 2026 snap election and France's 2027 presidential contest, may produce more nationalist governments that slow integration on budgets, defense, or the single market, yet these shifts remain compatible with continued EU membership. Economic interdependence through the eurozone and customs union further raises exit costs. Only an unprecedented cascade of simultaneous crises—such as multiple coordinated withdrawals or institutional paralysis—could alter the outcome within the narrow window.