The EU's institutional framework, treaty-based commitments among 27 member states, and deep economic integration continue to underpin trader consensus against dissolution by the end of 2026. Ongoing policy work on defense partnerships, Ukraine accession talks, budget negotiations for the next Multiannual Financial Framework, and competitiveness initiatives reflect sustained cooperation rather than fragmentation. Recent national elections and populist gains have focused on sovereignty reforms or reduced central powers instead of exit or breakup. While hypothetical triggers such as simultaneous sovereign debt crises, major geopolitical shocks, or coordinated withdrawal movements could theoretically alter trajectories, no verifiable developments in the past year indicate momentum toward dissolution within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於歐盟在2027年之前解體？
歐盟在2027年之前解體？
是
1% 機率
$180,706 交易量
$180,706 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 機率
$180,706 交易量
$180,706 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's institutional framework, treaty-based commitments among 27 member states, and deep economic integration continue to underpin trader consensus against dissolution by the end of 2026. Ongoing policy work on defense partnerships, Ukraine accession talks, budget negotiations for the next Multiannual Financial Framework, and competitiveness initiatives reflect sustained cooperation rather than fragmentation. Recent national elections and populist gains have focused on sovereignty reforms or reduced central powers instead of exit or breakup. While hypothetical triggers such as simultaneous sovereign debt crises, major geopolitical shocks, or coordinated withdrawal movements could theoretically alter trajectories, no verifiable developments in the past year indicate momentum toward dissolution within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$180,706結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's institutional framework, treaty-based commitments among 27 member states, and deep economic integration continue to underpin trader consensus against dissolution by the end of 2026. Ongoing policy work on defense partnerships, Ukraine accession talks, budget negotiations for the next Multiannual Financial Framework, and competitiveness initiatives reflect sustained cooperation rather than fragmentation. Recent national elections and populist gains have focused on sovereignty reforms or reduced central powers instead of exit or breakup. While hypothetical triggers such as simultaneous sovereign debt crises, major geopolitical shocks, or coordinated withdrawal movements could theoretically alter trajectories, no verifiable developments in the past year indicate momentum toward dissolution within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$180,706結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETThe EU's institutional framework, treaty-based commitments among 27 member states, and deep economic integration continue to underpin trader consensus against dissolution by the end of 2026. Ongoing policy work on defense partnerships, Ukraine accession talks, budget negotiations for the next Multiannual Financial Framework, and competitiveness initiatives reflect sustained cooperation rather than fragmentation. Recent national elections and populist gains have focused on sovereignty reforms or reduced central powers instead of exit or breakup. While hypothetical triggers such as simultaneous sovereign debt crises, major geopolitical shocks, or coordinated withdrawal movements could theoretically alter trajectories, no verifiable developments in the past year indicate momentum toward dissolution within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions