OPEC continues to operate as an active intergovernmental body with scheduled ministerial meetings, monthly oil market reports, and coordinated production adjustments through late 2026, including recent voluntary output increases by core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others. The UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026, marked the most significant recent departure amid quota disputes and regional conflict, yet Iraq has affirmed it will remain while seeking higher allowances, and the group has reaffirmed commitments to market stability. This institutional continuity and limited membership churn underpin the 96.2% implied probability against dissolution by December 31. Additional exits by more than half the remaining members or a formal disbandment agreement could still trigger resolution to yes, though current patterns of adaptation and ongoing policy coordination make such outcomes improbable absent major new fractures.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$38,750 交易量
$38,750 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$38,750 交易量
$38,750 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to operate as an active intergovernmental body with scheduled ministerial meetings, monthly oil market reports, and coordinated production adjustments through late 2026, including recent voluntary output increases by core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others. The UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026, marked the most significant recent departure amid quota disputes and regional conflict, yet Iraq has affirmed it will remain while seeking higher allowances, and the group has reaffirmed commitments to market stability. This institutional continuity and limited membership churn underpin the 96.2% implied probability against dissolution by December 31. Additional exits by more than half the remaining members or a formal disbandment agreement could still trigger resolution to yes, though current patterns of adaptation and ongoing policy coordination make such outcomes improbable absent major new fractures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$38,750結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to operate as an active intergovernmental body with scheduled ministerial meetings, monthly oil market reports, and coordinated production adjustments through late 2026, including recent voluntary output increases by core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others. The UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026, marked the most significant recent departure amid quota disputes and regional conflict, yet Iraq has affirmed it will remain while seeking higher allowances, and the group has reaffirmed commitments to market stability. This institutional continuity and limited membership churn underpin the 96.2% implied probability against dissolution by December 31. Additional exits by more than half the remaining members or a formal disbandment agreement could still trigger resolution to yes, though current patterns of adaptation and ongoing policy coordination make such outcomes improbable absent major new fractures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$38,750結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETOPEC continues to operate as an active intergovernmental body with scheduled ministerial meetings, monthly oil market reports, and coordinated production adjustments through late 2026, including recent voluntary output increases by core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others. The UAE's exit effective May 1, 2026, marked the most significant recent departure amid quota disputes and regional conflict, yet Iraq has affirmed it will remain while seeking higher allowances, and the group has reaffirmed commitments to market stability. This institutional continuity and limited membership churn underpin the 96.2% implied probability against dissolution by December 31. Additional exits by more than half the remaining members or a formal disbandment agreement could still trigger resolution to yes, though current patterns of adaptation and ongoing policy coordination make such outcomes improbable absent major new fractures.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions