Recent OPEC+ production adjustments, including modest output increases agreed in early May 2026 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and reaffirmed commitments to market stability by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other core members illustrate the alliance's institutional resilience and ongoing coordination on global oil supply. Despite the UAE's withdrawal effective May 1, 2026, which has introduced some speculation about reduced influence, the 91.5% market-implied probability against dissolution reflects trader consensus on historical precedent and the absence of broader exits. Geopolitical pressures and oil market dynamics continue to favor collective quotas over fragmentation. Realistic scenarios such as additional member departures or major demand shocks could still test this positioning, though current fundamentals point to sustained structure through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$19,078 交易量
$19,078 交易量
2026-12-31
$19,078 交易量
$19,078 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments, including modest output increases agreed in early May 2026 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and reaffirmed commitments to market stability by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other core members illustrate the alliance's institutional resilience and ongoing coordination on global oil supply. Despite the UAE's withdrawal effective May 1, 2026, which has introduced some speculation about reduced influence, the 91.5% market-implied probability against dissolution reflects trader consensus on historical precedent and the absence of broader exits. Geopolitical pressures and oil market dynamics continue to favor collective quotas over fragmentation. Realistic scenarios such as additional member departures or major demand shocks could still test this positioning, though current fundamentals point to sustained structure through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$19,078結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments, including modest output increases agreed in early May 2026 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and reaffirmed commitments to market stability by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other core members illustrate the alliance's institutional resilience and ongoing coordination on global oil supply. Despite the UAE's withdrawal effective May 1, 2026, which has introduced some speculation about reduced influence, the 91.5% market-implied probability against dissolution reflects trader consensus on historical precedent and the absence of broader exits. Geopolitical pressures and oil market dynamics continue to favor collective quotas over fragmentation. Realistic scenarios such as additional member departures or major demand shocks could still test this positioning, though current fundamentals point to sustained structure through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$19,078結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent OPEC+ production adjustments, including modest output increases agreed in early May 2026 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and reaffirmed commitments to market stability by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other core members illustrate the alliance's institutional resilience and ongoing coordination on global oil supply. Despite the UAE's withdrawal effective May 1, 2026, which has introduced some speculation about reduced influence, the 91.5% market-implied probability against dissolution reflects trader consensus on historical precedent and the absence of broader exits. Geopolitical pressures and oil market dynamics continue to favor collective quotas over fragmentation. Realistic scenarios such as additional member departures or major demand shocks could still test this positioning, though current fundamentals point to sustained structure through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions