Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by December 31, 2026, reflecting the organization's continued institutional activity and coordination among remaining members. Core producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman have sustained monthly production reviews and quota adjustments through September 2026, including a September 6 decision to hold output steady amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Ongoing high-level dialogues, such as the September OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, further demonstrate operational continuity despite the UAE's May 2026 exit, which removed one major producer but prompted no cascade of withdrawals meeting the market's dissolution threshold of more than half the original members. Saudi Arabia's longstanding role in market management and the absence of formal disbandment agreements underpin this consensus. Late-year shifts could still arise from additional major exits, escalated regional conflicts fracturing cooperation, or an explicit member vote to terminate the organization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$38,840 交易量
$38,840 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$38,840 交易量
$38,840 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by December 31, 2026, reflecting the organization's continued institutional activity and coordination among remaining members. Core producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman have sustained monthly production reviews and quota adjustments through September 2026, including a September 6 decision to hold output steady amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Ongoing high-level dialogues, such as the September OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, further demonstrate operational continuity despite the UAE's May 2026 exit, which removed one major producer but prompted no cascade of withdrawals meeting the market's dissolution threshold of more than half the original members. Saudi Arabia's longstanding role in market management and the absence of formal disbandment agreements underpin this consensus. Late-year shifts could still arise from additional major exits, escalated regional conflicts fracturing cooperation, or an explicit member vote to terminate the organization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$38,840結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by December 31, 2026, reflecting the organization's continued institutional activity and coordination among remaining members. Core producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman have sustained monthly production reviews and quota adjustments through September 2026, including a September 6 decision to hold output steady amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Ongoing high-level dialogues, such as the September OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, further demonstrate operational continuity despite the UAE's May 2026 exit, which removed one major producer but prompted no cascade of withdrawals meeting the market's dissolution threshold of more than half the original members. Saudi Arabia's longstanding role in market management and the absence of formal disbandment agreements underpin this consensus. Late-year shifts could still arise from additional major exits, escalated regional conflicts fracturing cooperation, or an explicit member vote to terminate the organization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETTraders assign a 96.2% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by December 31, 2026, reflecting the organization's continued institutional activity and coordination among remaining members. Core producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman have sustained monthly production reviews and quota adjustments through September 2026, including a September 6 decision to hold output steady amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Ongoing high-level dialogues, such as the September OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, further demonstrate operational continuity despite the UAE's May 2026 exit, which removed one major producer but prompted no cascade of withdrawals meeting the market's dissolution threshold of more than half the original members. Saudi Arabia's longstanding role in market management and the absence of formal disbandment agreements underpin this consensus. Late-year shifts could still arise from additional major exits, escalated regional conflicts fracturing cooperation, or an explicit member vote to terminate the organization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions