Core OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman continue coordinated production decisions, with a September 2026 ministerial meeting maintaining output levels for October and scheduling further reviews into year-end. This operational continuity, alongside quota negotiations and capacity audits for 2027 baselines, underpins trader consensus against dissolution by December 31 despite the UAE's May exit and Iraq's quota disputes. Geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have not halted the group's framework. Realistic shifts could stem from additional major member withdrawals or an explicit disbandment accord, though current institutional activity and shared incentives for oil market management make such outcomes improbable within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$38,777 交易量
$38,777 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$38,777 交易量
$38,777 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Core OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman continue coordinated production decisions, with a September 2026 ministerial meeting maintaining output levels for October and scheduling further reviews into year-end. This operational continuity, alongside quota negotiations and capacity audits for 2027 baselines, underpins trader consensus against dissolution by December 31 despite the UAE's May exit and Iraq's quota disputes. Geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have not halted the group's framework. Realistic shifts could stem from additional major member withdrawals or an explicit disbandment accord, though current institutional activity and shared incentives for oil market management make such outcomes improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$38,777結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Core OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman continue coordinated production decisions, with a September 2026 ministerial meeting maintaining output levels for October and scheduling further reviews into year-end. This operational continuity, alongside quota negotiations and capacity audits for 2027 baselines, underpins trader consensus against dissolution by December 31 despite the UAE's May exit and Iraq's quota disputes. Geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have not halted the group's framework. Realistic shifts could stem from additional major member withdrawals or an explicit disbandment accord, though current institutional activity and shared incentives for oil market management make such outcomes improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$38,777結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETCore OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman continue coordinated production decisions, with a September 2026 ministerial meeting maintaining output levels for October and scheduling further reviews into year-end. This operational continuity, alongside quota negotiations and capacity audits for 2027 baselines, underpins trader consensus against dissolution by December 31 despite the UAE's May exit and Iraq's quota disputes. Geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have not halted the group's framework. Realistic shifts could stem from additional major member withdrawals or an explicit disbandment accord, though current institutional activity and shared incentives for oil market management make such outcomes improbable within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions