OPEC’s institutional continuity and active coordination on production quotas underpin the 96.2% trader consensus against dissolution by year-end 2026. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq continue holding joint ministerial meetings, reaffirming commitments to market stability, and adjusting voluntary cuts as recently as September, even after the UAE’s May exit reduced the group’s capacity. Historical precedent shows limited exits—such as Qatar in 2019 or Angola—have not triggered collapse, while Saudi leadership retains strong incentives to manage spare capacity and influence prices amid ongoing regional supply disruptions. Dissolution would require either an official disbandment agreement or coordinated withdrawal by more than half the remaining members, neither of which has materialized. Late-year quota disputes or further exits tied to capacity audits could introduce modest uncertainty, yet current diplomatic and operational patterns indicate the cartel framework will persist through December.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$38,840 交易量
$38,840 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$38,840 交易量
$38,840 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OPEC’s institutional continuity and active coordination on production quotas underpin the 96.2% trader consensus against dissolution by year-end 2026. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq continue holding joint ministerial meetings, reaffirming commitments to market stability, and adjusting voluntary cuts as recently as September, even after the UAE’s May exit reduced the group’s capacity. Historical precedent shows limited exits—such as Qatar in 2019 or Angola—have not triggered collapse, while Saudi leadership retains strong incentives to manage spare capacity and influence prices amid ongoing regional supply disruptions. Dissolution would require either an official disbandment agreement or coordinated withdrawal by more than half the remaining members, neither of which has materialized. Late-year quota disputes or further exits tied to capacity audits could introduce modest uncertainty, yet current diplomatic and operational patterns indicate the cartel framework will persist through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$38,840結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OPEC’s institutional continuity and active coordination on production quotas underpin the 96.2% trader consensus against dissolution by year-end 2026. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq continue holding joint ministerial meetings, reaffirming commitments to market stability, and adjusting voluntary cuts as recently as September, even after the UAE’s May exit reduced the group’s capacity. Historical precedent shows limited exits—such as Qatar in 2019 or Angola—have not triggered collapse, while Saudi leadership retains strong incentives to manage spare capacity and influence prices amid ongoing regional supply disruptions. Dissolution would require either an official disbandment agreement or coordinated withdrawal by more than half the remaining members, neither of which has materialized. Late-year quota disputes or further exits tied to capacity audits could introduce modest uncertainty, yet current diplomatic and operational patterns indicate the cartel framework will persist through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETOPEC’s institutional continuity and active coordination on production quotas underpin the 96.2% trader consensus against dissolution by year-end 2026. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq continue holding joint ministerial meetings, reaffirming commitments to market stability, and adjusting voluntary cuts as recently as September, even after the UAE’s May exit reduced the group’s capacity. Historical precedent shows limited exits—such as Qatar in 2019 or Angola—have not triggered collapse, while Saudi leadership retains strong incentives to manage spare capacity and influence prices amid ongoing regional supply disruptions. Dissolution would require either an official disbandment agreement or coordinated withdrawal by more than half the remaining members, neither of which has materialized. Late-year quota disputes or further exits tied to capacity audits could introduce modest uncertainty, yet current diplomatic and operational patterns indicate the cartel framework will persist through December.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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