Market icon

有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？

Market icon

有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$110,806 交易量

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$110,806 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no EU withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official Article 50 invocations, referendums, or government commitments across member states despite ongoing Eurosceptic rhetoric. Recent symbolic actions, such as Hungary's parliamentary removal of the EU flag in early April 2026 amid disputes over Ukraine's potential accession, underscore tensions but stop short of exit signals, with Prime Minister Orbán emphasizing strategic partnerships over departure. Polexit rumors were debunked in mid-March fact-checks confirming no legal moves under Poland's pro-EU leadership. Post-Brexit economic lessons and procedural hurdles like multi-year negotiations deter action, even as polls show minority support in countries like Poland (around 25%); late-breaking scandals or snap elections could shift odds, though none loom imminently.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$110,806
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no EU withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official Article 50 invocations, referendums, or government commitments across member states despite ongoing Eurosceptic rhetoric. Recent symbolic actions, such as Hungary's parliamentary removal of the EU flag in early April 2026 amid disputes over Ukraine's potential accession, underscore tensions but stop short of exit signals, with Prime Minister Orbán emphasizing strategic partnerships over departure. Polexit rumors were debunked in mid-March fact-checks confirming no legal moves under Poland's pro-EU leadership. Post-Brexit economic lessons and procedural hurdles like multi-year negotiations deter action, even as polls show minority support in countries like Poland (around 25%); late-breaking scandals or snap elections could shift odds, though none loom imminently.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$110,806
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "有任何國家在2027年前退出歐盟嗎？" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？" has generated $110.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 8, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？" is "有任何國家在2027年前退出歐盟嗎？" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.