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選舉·中期

CT-01民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
選舉·中期

CT-01民主黨初選獲勝者

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 22%

Ruth Fortune 5%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 22%

Ruth Fortune 5%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin

$2,748 交易量

47%

John Larson

$509 交易量

31%

Ruth Fortune

$486 交易量

5%

Jillian Gilchrest

$0 交易量

4%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,355 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors former Hartford Mayor **Luke Bronin** at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, ahead of incumbent Rep. **John Larson** at 31.5%, despite Larson's late-January internal poll (released March 27) showing a 49-26 lead over Bronin among 400 likely voters. Bronin's fundraising dominance—$1.48 million cash-on-hand versus Larson's under $1 million—enables potential ad superiority in the Hartford media market, fueling trader optimism amid undecideds (15%) and no TV campaigns or debates yet. Challengers like State Rep. **Jillian Gilchrest** (9% in poll, 4.3% market), **Ruth Fortune** (5%), and **Mark Stewart Greenstein** (1.1%) push generational change against the 77-year-old Larson seeking a 15th term, in Connecticut's first competitive House primary in decades. The May district convention for ballot access and positions looms as a key test.

Trader consensus favors former Hartford Mayor **Luke Bronin** at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, ahead of incumbent Rep. **John Larson** at 31.5%, despite Larson's late-January internal poll (released March 27) showing a 49-26 lead over Bronin among 400 likely voters. Bronin's fundraising dominance—$1.48 million cash-on-hand versus Larson's under $1 million—enables potential ad superiority in the Hartford media market, fueling trader optimism amid undecideds (15%) and no TV campaigns or debates yet. Challengers like State Rep. **Jillian Gilchrest** (9% in poll, 4.3% market), **Ruth Fortune** (5%), and **Mark Stewart Greenstein** (1.1%) push generational change against the 77-year-old Larson seeking a 15th term, in Connecticut's first competitive House primary in decades. The May district convention for ballot access and positions looms as a key test.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors former Hartford Mayor **Luke Bronin** at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, ahead of incumbent Rep. **John Larson** at 31.5%, despite Larson's late-January internal poll (released March 27) showing a 49-26 lead over Bronin among 400 likely voters. Bronin's fundraising dominance—$1.48 million cash-on-hand versus Larson's under $1 million—enables potential ad superiority in the Hartford media market, fueling trader optimism amid undecideds (15%) and no TV campaigns or debates yet. Challengers like State Rep. **Jillian Gilchrest** (9% in poll, 4.3% market), **Ruth Fortune** (5%), and **Mark Stewart Greenstein** (1.1%) push generational change against the 77-year-old Larson seeking a 15th term, in Connecticut's first competitive House primary in decades. The May district convention for ballot access and positions looms as a key test.

Trader consensus favors former Hartford Mayor **Luke Bronin** at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 11, ahead of incumbent Rep. **John Larson** at 31.5%, despite Larson's late-January internal poll (released March 27) showing a 49-26 lead over Bronin among 400 likely voters. Bronin's fundraising dominance—$1.48 million cash-on-hand versus Larson's under $1 million—enables potential ad superiority in the Hartford media market, fueling trader optimism amid undecideds (15%) and no TV campaigns or debates yet. Challengers like State Rep. **Jillian Gilchrest** (9% in poll, 4.3% market), **Ruth Fortune** (5%), and **Mark Stewart Greenstein** (1.1%) push generational change against the 77-year-old Larson seeking a 15th term, in Connecticut's first competitive House primary in decades. The May district convention for ballot access and positions looms as a key test.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"CT-01民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luke Bronin" at 47%, followed by "John Larson" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CT-01民主黨初選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CT-01民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CT-01民主黨初選獲勝者" is "Luke Bronin" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Larson" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CT-01民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.