Skip to main content
icon for CA-04主要優勝者

CA-04主要優勝者

icon for CA-04主要優勝者

CA-04主要優勝者

$31,245 交易量

2026-06-02
Polymarket

$31,245 交易量

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$7,345 交易量

95%

Eric Jones

$5,393 交易量

91%

約翰·衛斯理·泰勒

$902 交易量

7%

希斯·富克森

$638 交易量

5%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 交易量

5%

特雷弗·梅雷爾

$10,112 交易量

3%

Sharon Brown

$3,429 交易量

2%

Mandy Ghusar

$2,715 交易量

<1%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Mike Thompson faces his most notable Democratic primary challenge in years from Eric Jones in California's June 2 top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has incorporated new voters in Northern California areas including Napa and Sonoma counties plus Sacramento suburbs, altering the electorate from prior cycles. Jones, a younger entrepreneur with strong fundraising and endorsements from youth-focused groups, has positioned his campaign around mobilizing newer voters and criticizing establishment approaches. Thompson, a longtime moderate Blue Dog Democrat, benefits from name recognition and institutional support but must consolidate support in the altered district. Multiple Republican candidates and an independent also appear on the ballot, though the contest centers on which two Democrats advance to the general election in the solidly Democratic-leaning seat.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$31,245
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Mike Thompson faces his most notable Democratic primary challenge in years from Eric Jones in California's June 2 top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has incorporated new voters in Northern California areas including Napa and Sonoma counties plus Sacramento suburbs, altering the electorate from prior cycles. Jones, a younger entrepreneur with strong fundraising and endorsements from youth-focused groups, has positioned his campaign around mobilizing newer voters and criticizing establishment approaches. Thompson, a longtime moderate Blue Dog Democrat, benefits from name recognition and institutional support but must consolidate support in the altered district. Multiple Republican candidates and an independent also appear on the ballot, though the contest centers on which two Democrats advance to the general election in the solidly Democratic-leaning seat.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$31,245
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04主要優勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 95%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 91%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04主要優勝者" has generated $31.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04主要優勝者," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04主要優勝者" is "Mike Thompson" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 91%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04主要優勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.