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選舉·主要

CA-04主要優勝者

Market icon
選舉·主要

CA-04主要優勝者

$17,146 交易量

2026-06-02
Polymarket

$17,146 交易量

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,439 交易量

96%

Eric Jones

$2,717 交易量

91%

Trevor Merrell

$6,109 交易量

18%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 交易量

8%

Sharon Brown

$0 交易量

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$698 交易量

6%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 交易量

6%

John Wesley Tyler

$554 交易量

38%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive Democratic primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones in California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party. Jones, endorsed by Our Revolution, has raised more ($2.6 million) than Thompson ($2 million) as of late 2025, though Thompson holds a cash-on-hand edge and Democratic Party of California backing; their generational and ideological contest draws local media focus amid post-redistricting shifts narrowing the district's D+17 partisan lean. A crowded field of six Republicans and one independent risks vote-splitting, potentially advancing both Democrats. Filings closed March 6 with the certified list released March 26; no polls available, but ratings remain Safe Democratic. Early voting starts May 23.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$17,146
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive Democratic primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones in California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party. Jones, endorsed by Our Revolution, has raised more ($2.6 million) than Thompson ($2 million) as of late 2025, though Thompson holds a cash-on-hand edge and Democratic Party of California backing; their generational and ideological contest draws local media focus amid post-redistricting shifts narrowing the district's D+17 partisan lean. A crowded field of six Republicans and one independent risks vote-splitting, potentially advancing both Democrats. Filings closed March 6 with the certified list released March 26; no polls available, but ratings remain Safe Democratic. Early voting starts May 23.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$17,146
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04主要優勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 91%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04主要優勝者" has generated $17.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04主要優勝者," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04主要優勝者" is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 91%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04主要優勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.