Trader consensus in the Cochabamba governor election reflects a fragmented field keeping probabilities tight, with Mario Enrique Severich leading at 25.1% implied odds ahead of Sergio Oliver Rodríguez at 21.9%, mirroring recent polls showing no candidate above 30% support. MAS-backed Severich draws strength from rural voter bases loyal to Evo Morales' legacy, while Comunidad Ciudadana's Oliver appeals in urban areas amid dissatisfaction with national governance. The split among lower-tier contenders like Juan Roberth Flores and Wilfredo Rolando Morales prevents any first-round majority, priming a likely runoff under Bolivia's electoral rules requiring 50% plus one or 40% with a 10-point lead. Late polls, endorsements, or campaign gaffes could widen the gap before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Juan Roberth Flores 11.1%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez 10.0%
Ruth Alina Peralta 3.3%
Mario Enrique Severich 2.9%
$21,196 交易量
$21,196 交易量
Juan Roberth Flores
6%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
22%
Ruth Alina Peralta
3%
Mario Enrique Severich
25%
Jhon Ariel Rioja
2%
Esther Soria Gonzales
2%
Remigio Ancalle
1%
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
1%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
6%
Juan Roberth Flores 11.1%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez 10.0%
Ruth Alina Peralta 3.3%
Mario Enrique Severich 2.9%
$21,196 交易量
$21,196 交易量
Juan Roberth Flores
6%
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
22%
Ruth Alina Peralta
3%
Mario Enrique Severich
25%
Jhon Ariel Rioja
2%
Esther Soria Gonzales
2%
Remigio Ancalle
1%
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
1%
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
6%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
市場開放時間: Jan 20, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the Cochabamba governor election reflects a fragmented field keeping probabilities tight, with Mario Enrique Severich leading at 25.1% implied odds ahead of Sergio Oliver Rodríguez at 21.9%, mirroring recent polls showing no candidate above 30% support. MAS-backed Severich draws strength from rural voter bases loyal to Evo Morales' legacy, while Comunidad Ciudadana's Oliver appeals in urban areas amid dissatisfaction with national governance. The split among lower-tier contenders like Juan Roberth Flores and Wilfredo Rolando Morales prevents any first-round majority, priming a likely runoff under Bolivia's electoral rules requiring 50% plus one or 40% with a 10-point lead. Late polls, endorsements, or campaign gaffes could widen the gap before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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