Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) and challenger Jamie Joyce (D) are the only candidates who filed by the March 6 deadline for CA-12's top-two primary on June 2, after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, guaranteeing a Democrat will win the November 3 general election in this D+39 district—the nation's second-most Democratic by Cook Partisan Voter Index. Simon's 65.4% 2024 victory over another Democrat, coupled with her fundraising dominance ($916K raised), solidifies trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the structural certainty of California's electoral system. Potential disruptions include late candidate disqualifications, scandals, or unprecedented national midterm dynamics, though historical precedents in safe seats make these improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$11,700 交易量
$11,700 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$11,700 交易量
$11,700 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,875 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$4,825 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) and challenger Jamie Joyce (D) are the only candidates who filed by the March 6 deadline for CA-12's top-two primary on June 2, after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, guaranteeing a Democrat will win the November 3 general election in this D+39 district—the nation's second-most Democratic by Cook Partisan Voter Index. Simon's 65.4% 2024 victory over another Democrat, coupled with her fundraising dominance ($916K raised), solidifies trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the structural certainty of California's electoral system. Potential disruptions include late candidate disqualifications, scandals, or unprecedented national midterm dynamics, though historical precedents in safe seats make these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$11,700結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) and challenger Jamie Joyce (D) are the only candidates who filed by the March 6 deadline for CA-12's top-two primary on June 2, after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, guaranteeing a Democrat will win the November 3 general election in this D+39 district—the nation's second-most Democratic by Cook Partisan Voter Index. Simon's 65.4% 2024 victory over another Democrat, coupled with her fundraising dominance ($916K raised), solidifies trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the structural certainty of California's electoral system. Potential disruptions include late candidate disqualifications, scandals, or unprecedented national midterm dynamics, though historical precedents in safe seats make these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,700結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) and challenger Jamie Joyce (D) are the only candidates who filed by the March 6 deadline for CA-12's top-two primary on June 2, after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, guaranteeing a Democrat will win the November 3 general election in this D+39 district—the nation's second-most Democratic by Cook Partisan Voter Index. Simon's 65.4% 2024 victory over another Democrat, coupled with her fundraising dominance ($916K raised), solidifies trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the structural certainty of California's electoral system. Potential disruptions include late candidate disqualifications, scandals, or unprecedented national midterm dynamics, though historical precedents in safe seats make these improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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