The 69.5% implied probability for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act appearing on California's November 3 ballot reflects trader consensus on robust signature-gathering progress by proponents, including SEIU-UHW, which reported 25% of the required 874,641 valid signatures by late February amid ongoing drives. Recent March polls, such as UC Berkeley's (52% support) and Citrin Center's (50% support) among registered voters, indicate plurality backing despite sharp divisions and opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Kevin Kiley, and billionaires like Reid Hoffman. Counter-initiatives cleared in February add hurdles, but union mobilization and endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders sustain momentum toward the June 25 verification deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$86,431 交易量
$86,431 交易量
2026-06-25
是
$86,431 交易量
$86,431 交易量
2026-06-25
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. The 69.5% implied probability for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act appearing on California's November 3 ballot reflects trader consensus on robust signature-gathering progress by proponents, including SEIU-UHW, which reported 25% of the required 874,641 valid signatures by late February amid ongoing drives. Recent March polls, such as UC Berkeley's (52% support) and Citrin Center's (50% support) among registered voters, indicate plurality backing despite sharp divisions and opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Kevin Kiley, and billionaires like Reid Hoffman. Counter-initiatives cleared in February add hurdles, but union mobilization and endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders sustain momentum toward the June 25 verification deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
市場開放時間： Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
交易量
$86,431結束日期
2026-06-25市場開放時間
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. The 69.5% implied probability for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act appearing on California's November 3 ballot reflects trader consensus on robust signature-gathering progress by proponents, including SEIU-UHW, which reported 25% of the required 874,641 valid signatures by late February amid ongoing drives. Recent March polls, such as UC Berkeley's (52% support) and Citrin Center's (50% support) among registered voters, indicate plurality backing despite sharp divisions and opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Kevin Kiley, and billionaires like Reid Hoffman. Counter-initiatives cleared in February add hurdles, but union mobilization and endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders sustain momentum toward the June 25 verification deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$86,431結束日期
2026-06-25市場開放時間
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 69.5% implied probability for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act appearing on California's November 3 ballot reflects trader consensus on robust signature-gathering progress by proponents, including SEIU-UHW, which reported 25% of the required 874,641 valid signatures by late February amid ongoing drives. Recent March polls, such as UC Berkeley's (52% support) and Citrin Center's (50% support) among registered voters, indicate plurality backing despite sharp divisions and opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Kevin Kiley, and billionaires like Reid Hoffman. Counter-initiatives cleared in February add hurdles, but union mobilization and endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders sustain momentum toward the June 25 verification deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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