Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom April meeting, reflecting the March 18 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% that initiated the easing cycle amid cooling inflation. February's IPCA inflation slowed to 3.81% year-over-year—the lowest since April 2024—while March's IPCA-15 preview rose 0.44% month-over-month above forecasts, pressuring annual figures higher to around 4.17% for 2026 per the latest Boletim Focus survey, which forecasts a further 50 basis point reduction to 14.25%. Cautious forward guidance acknowledges oil shock risks from Middle East tensions, yet supports continued disinflation convergence toward the 3% target, with low odds on no change (13%) or hike (0.9%) signaling strong easing expectations ahead of the late-April decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於下調 85%
無變動 13%
提高 <1%
$192,678 交易量
$192,678 交易量
提高
1%
無變動
13%
下調
85%
下調 85%
無變動 13%
提高 <1%
$192,678 交易量
$192,678 交易量
提高
1%
無變動
13%
下調
85%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom April meeting, reflecting the March 18 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% that initiated the easing cycle amid cooling inflation. February's IPCA inflation slowed to 3.81% year-over-year—the lowest since April 2024—while March's IPCA-15 preview rose 0.44% month-over-month above forecasts, pressuring annual figures higher to around 4.17% for 2026 per the latest Boletim Focus survey, which forecasts a further 50 basis point reduction to 14.25%. Cautious forward guidance acknowledges oil shock risks from Middle East tensions, yet supports continued disinflation convergence toward the 3% target, with low odds on no change (13%) or hike (0.9%) signaling strong easing expectations ahead of the late-April decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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