Following the US military strikes on Caracas on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has pursued a managed political transition in Venezuela, seizing control of oil revenues and installing interim oversight without further airstrikes or ground operations. Tensions escalated March 3 when the US threatened Department of Justice indictments against Maduro's sister and interim leader Delcy Rodríguez for alleged criminal activity, prompting Venezuelan pushback. Opposition figure María Corina Machado announced her return March 1 amid coalition talks, while President Trump touted the intervention's successes in a March 28 speech, hinting at broader regional foreign policy actions. Traders weigh risks from Maduro loyalist holdouts, oil disputes, and transition hurdles against de-escalation signals, with no confirmed military escalations in the past 90 days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$2,526,407 交易量
2026-01-31
12月31日
21%
$2,526,407 交易量
12月31日
$485,106 交易量
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the US military strikes on Caracas on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has pursued a managed political transition in Venezuela, seizing control of oil revenues and installing interim oversight without further airstrikes or ground operations. Tensions escalated March 3 when the US threatened Department of Justice indictments against Maduro's sister and interim leader Delcy Rodríguez for alleged criminal activity, prompting Venezuelan pushback. Opposition figure María Corina Machado announced her return March 1 amid coalition talks, while President Trump touted the intervention's successes in a March 28 speech, hinting at broader regional foreign policy actions. Traders weigh risks from Maduro loyalist holdouts, oil disputes, and transition hurdles against de-escalation signals, with no confirmed military escalations in the past 90 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
交易量
$2,526,407結束日期
2026-01-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the US military strikes on Caracas on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has pursued a managed political transition in Venezuela, seizing control of oil revenues and installing interim oversight without further airstrikes or ground operations. Tensions escalated March 3 when the US threatened Department of Justice indictments against Maduro's sister and interim leader Delcy Rodríguez for alleged criminal activity, prompting Venezuelan pushback. Opposition figure María Corina Machado announced her return March 1 amid coalition talks, while President Trump touted the intervention's successes in a March 28 speech, hinting at broader regional foreign policy actions. Traders weigh risks from Maduro loyalist holdouts, oil disputes, and transition hurdles against de-escalation signals, with no confirmed military escalations in the past 90 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$2,526,407結束日期
2026-01-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the US military strikes on Caracas on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has pursued a managed political transition in Venezuela, seizing control of oil revenues and installing interim oversight without further airstrikes or ground operations. Tensions escalated March 3 when the US threatened Department of Justice indictments against Maduro's sister and interim leader Delcy Rodríguez for alleged criminal activity, prompting Venezuelan pushback. Opposition figure María Corina Machado announced her return March 1 amid coalition talks, while President Trump touted the intervention's successes in a March 28 speech, hinting at broader regional foreign policy actions. Traders weigh risks from Maduro loyalist holdouts, oil disputes, and transition hurdles against de-escalation signals, with no confirmed military escalations in the past 90 days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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