Market icon
地緣政治·委內瑞拉

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Market icon
地緣政治·委內瑞拉

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

8% 機率
Polymarket

$97,299 交易量

8% 機率
Polymarket

$97,299 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% on a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, reflecting the absence of any ground troop deployments or congressional authorization amid formidable constitutional, diplomatic, and logistical barriers. Early-year rhetoric from President Trump about potential land strikes against cartels peaked in January following fentanyl lab targeting pressures on Mexico, but President Sheinbaum's firm rejection after bilateral talks and Mexican forces' February killing of cartel leader "El Mencho" shifted focus to cooperative security operations. No verified U.S. military incursions have occurred, with FAA notices limited to airspace precautions; late-March reports show de-escalation signals and entrenched bilateral frameworks, leaving slim paths for change like a major cartel attack on U.S. soil or total diplomatic collapse.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$97,299
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% on a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, reflecting the absence of any ground troop deployments or congressional authorization amid formidable constitutional, diplomatic, and logistical barriers. Early-year rhetoric from President Trump about potential land strikes against cartels peaked in January following fentanyl lab targeting pressures on Mexico, but President Sheinbaum's firm rejection after bilateral talks and Mexican forces' February killing of cartel leader "El Mencho" shifted focus to cooperative security operations. No verified U.S. military incursions have occurred, with FAA notices limited to airspace precautions; late-March reports show de-escalation signals and entrenched bilateral frameworks, leaving slim paths for change like a major cartel attack on U.S. soil or total diplomatic collapse.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$97,299
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" has generated $97.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" is 8% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.