Skip to main content
icon for 美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?

美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?

icon for 美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?

美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?

12月 31

12月 31

8% 機率
Polymarket

$69,658 交易量

8% 機率
Polymarket

$69,658 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration has prioritized cooperation with interim President Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro, focusing on oil sector access and bilateral security arrangements rather than installing opposition figures. President Trump has repeatedly stated that María Corina Machado lacks sufficient domestic support or respect to lead, opting instead for engagement with the current interim government. This approach has remained consistent through mid-2026, with no announced policy shift toward formal recognition of Machado despite her Nobel recognition and meetings with U.S. officials. Traders view the December 31 deadline as unlikely to produce such an announcement given ongoing diplomatic priorities and Machado's focus on a potential late-2026 return and future elections.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$69,658
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration has prioritized cooperation with interim President Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro, focusing on oil sector access and bilateral security arrangements rather than installing opposition figures. President Trump has repeatedly stated that María Corina Machado lacks sufficient domestic support or respect to lead, opting instead for engagement with the current interim government. This approach has remained consistent through mid-2026, with no announced policy shift toward formal recognition of Machado despite her Nobel recognition and meetings with U.S. officials. Traders view the December 31 deadline as unlikely to produce such an announcement given ongoing diplomatic priorities and Machado's focus on a potential late-2026 return and future elections.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$69,658
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人嗎?" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?" has generated $69.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?" is "美國會在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人嗎?" at just 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國在12月31日前承認馬查多為委內瑞拉領導人?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.