Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%–3.75% across January, March, and the upcoming April 28–29, 2026 FOMC meetings, following confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic growth and persistent inflation. The January 27–28 decision marked the first hold since prior cuts, reinforced by the March 17–18 statement on an 11–1 vote, with March 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—bolstering the case for policy patience despite one dissenter favoring easing. March dot plot projections still anticipate one rate cut later in 2026, anchoring sentiment. Realistic challenges include a sharp labor market deterioration or sub-2% core PCE prints before April's close, though recent data trends favor continuation of the pause.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (ม.ค.- เม.ย.)
การตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (ม.ค.- เม.ย.)
หยุด–หยุด–หยุด 99.3%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด <1%
อื่น ๆ <1%
$654,121 ปริมาณ
$654,121 ปริมาณ
Apr 29, 2026
หยุด–หยุด–หยุด
99%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
<1%
อื่น ๆ
<1%
หยุด–หยุด–หยุด 99.3%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด <1%
อื่น ๆ <1%
$654,121 ปริมาณ
$654,121 ปริมาณ
Apr 29, 2026
หยุด–หยุด–หยุด
$100,313 ปริมาณ
99%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
$235,925 ปริมาณ
<1%
อื่น ๆ
$277,896 ปริมาณ
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%–3.75% across January, March, and the upcoming April 28–29, 2026 FOMC meetings, following confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic growth and persistent inflation. The January 27–28 decision marked the first hold since prior cuts, reinforced by the March 17–18 statement on an 11–1 vote, with March 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—bolstering the case for policy patience despite one dissenter favoring easing. March dot plot projections still anticipate one rate cut later in 2026, anchoring sentiment. Realistic challenges include a sharp labor market deterioration or sub-2% core PCE prints before April's close, though recent data trends favor continuation of the pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$654,121วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%–3.75% across January, March, and the upcoming April 28–29, 2026 FOMC meetings, following confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic growth and persistent inflation. The January 27–28 decision marked the first hold since prior cuts, reinforced by the March 17–18 statement on an 11–1 vote, with March 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—bolstering the case for policy patience despite one dissenter favoring easing. March dot plot projections still anticipate one rate cut later in 2026, anchoring sentiment. Realistic challenges include a sharp labor market deterioration or sub-2% core PCE prints before April's close, though recent data trends favor continuation of the pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$654,121วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%–3.75% across January, March, and the upcoming April 28–29, 2026 FOMC meetings, following confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic growth and persistent inflation. The January 27–28 decision marked the first hold since prior cuts, reinforced by the March 17–18 statement on an 11–1 vote, with March 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—bolstering the case for policy patience despite one dissenter favoring easing. March dot plot projections still anticipate one rate cut later in 2026, anchoring sentiment. Realistic challenges include a sharp labor market deterioration or sub-2% core PCE prints before April's close, though recent data trends favor continuation of the pause.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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