The dismissal of the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in late April 2026, following a federal judge’s rejection of related subpoenas, has anchored trader consensus at a 98.7% probability that the former Federal Reserve Chair will not face incarceration before 2027. With his term as chair concluding in May 2026 and no active indictments or enforcement actions remaining, market-implied odds reflect the absence of verifiable legal exposure, longstanding norms protecting central bank officials, and a shift in focus toward successor Kevin Warsh’s monetary policy agenda amid stable inflation and labor data. While tail risks such as unprecedented political reversals or novel charges cannot be entirely ruled out, they lack grounding in current regulatory filings or precedent and would require extraordinary legal developments to materialize.