Recent Fed communications and September data have shifted market focus toward additional tightening rather than cuts. After the September 15-16 FOMC meeting raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent—the first hike since 2023—minutes and officials including Waller and Musalem signaled further increases likely by year-end to address inflation stuck above the 2 percent target, with August core PCE at 3.0 percent. Softer September payrolls (+29,000) and 4.2 percent unemployment tempered October hike odds, but futures markets still price roughly an 85 percent chance of at least one more hike by the December 8-9 meeting. The next FOMC decision on October 28 is widely expected to hold steady, with incoming inflation and labor data serving as key swing factors for the year-end path.