Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy stance, with the target range held at 3.50%–3.75% following the April 28–29 meeting. March CPI printed at 3.3%, while April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment remained at 4.3%, prompting major brokerages including J.P. Morgan and Nomura to shift forecasts toward no rate cuts through year-end. Market-implied pricing from CME FedWatch and the latest FOMC dot plot now assigns the highest probability to steady policy, with the next potential move viewed as a possible hike rather than easing. Geopolitical tensions elevating energy prices have further complicated the inflation outlook, reducing the case for near-term cuts. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will provide key data points for reassessing the rate path.