Elevated April 2026 CPI readings, which rose 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, represent the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no federal funds rate cuts through year-end. With the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, market-implied pricing and brokerage forecasts now largely price out easing, reflecting resilient inflation and labor market data that have shifted consensus from earlier projections of one or two cuts. The June 10 CPI release and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting stand as near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities, particularly if energy-driven pressures persist or show signs of moderation.