Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with August core PCE near 3.4%, prompted the September 16 hike that lifted the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00%. FOMC minutes and the dot plot show most officials expect at least one additional 25-basis-point increase by year-end 2026, while the median path holds rates near 4.1% through 2027 amid resilient growth and a stable 4.1% unemployment rate. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in the highest probability of the range reaching 4.25% before 2027, with sharply lower odds for moves beyond 4.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the October 28 FOMC decision, September CPI release, and December meeting with updated projections.