Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a near-certain 96.2% implied probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027, driven by the institution's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy since 1913, requiring unprecedented congressional legislation and presidential assent amid bipartisan support for its independence. No bills targeting outright abolition have advanced in the 119th Congress (2025-2026), with recent proposals like the End the Fed's Big Bank Bailout Act focusing narrowly on lender restrictions rather than dissolution. The Fed's ongoing operational losses—totaling $210 billion through 2025—and political pressures, including potential Chair Powell replacement threats, have spurred reform rhetoric but no substantive action. Tail risks include a severe economic crisis catalyzing radical populism or unified GOP control pushing structural overhaul, though such scenarios remain improbable given FOMC continuity and market stability signals.