The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 war, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, combined with the security forces' loyalty during mass protests and a subsequent fragile ceasefire, underpins trader expectations that collapse is unlikely before 2027. Elite infighting and economic pressures persist, as noted in May statements from officials warning of internal divisions, yet no widespread defections or loss of territorial control have materialized. Recent student-led demonstrations in early June over education policies remain localized and contained. Analysts highlight the regime's institutional redundancy and history of weathering unrest as key stabilizing factors, with no scheduled events in the immediate term poised to trigger rapid change.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
$20,142,312 ปริมาณ
$20,142,312 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
$20,142,312 ปริมาณ
$20,142,312 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 war, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, combined with the security forces' loyalty during mass protests and a subsequent fragile ceasefire, underpins trader expectations that collapse is unlikely before 2027. Elite infighting and economic pressures persist, as noted in May statements from officials warning of internal divisions, yet no widespread defections or loss of territorial control have materialized. Recent student-led demonstrations in early June over education policies remain localized and contained. Analysts highlight the regime's institutional redundancy and history of weathering unrest as key stabilizing factors, with no scheduled events in the immediate term poised to trigger rapid change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,142,312วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 war, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, combined with the security forces' loyalty during mass protests and a subsequent fragile ceasefire, underpins trader expectations that collapse is unlikely before 2027. Elite infighting and economic pressures persist, as noted in May statements from officials warning of internal divisions, yet no widespread defections or loss of territorial control have materialized. Recent student-led demonstrations in early June over education policies remain localized and contained. Analysts highlight the regime's institutional redundancy and history of weathering unrest as key stabilizing factors, with no scheduled events in the immediate term poised to trigger rapid change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,142,467วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 war, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, combined with the security forces' loyalty during mass protests and a subsequent fragile ceasefire, underpins trader expectations that collapse is unlikely before 2027. Elite infighting and economic pressures persist, as noted in May statements from officials warning of internal divisions, yet no widespread defections or loss of territorial control have materialized. Recent student-led demonstrations in early June over education policies remain localized and contained. Analysts highlight the regime's institutional redundancy and history of weathering unrest as key stabilizing factors, with no scheduled events in the immediate term poised to trigger rapid change.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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