Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations for a nuclear agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, following the April 2026 ceasefire after February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, represent the primary driver behind the trader consensus favoring no invasion before 2027. Administration officials have signaled preference for diplomatic channels, including recent meetings mediated in part by Pakistan and reports of progress toward a memorandum of understanding, amid assessments of substantial logistical, military, and political costs associated with ground operations. No U.S. forces have established control over Iranian territory, consistent with patterns of prior limited strikes without escalation to occupation. Diplomatic momentum through late May continues to shape market positioning, though any breakdown in talks could introduce volatility before the December 2026 resolution window.