Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has dashed near-term easing hopes. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy price spike amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 hold at 3.5%-3.75% and dot plot signaling just one 2026 cut later in the year reinforce this hawkish stance. A dramatic cooldown in May CPI (due June 10) or weakening April jobs data could challenge this consensus, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนมิถุนายน?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนมิถุนายน?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 5%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 2.1%
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน <1%
$8,711,952 ปริมาณ
$8,711,952 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
5%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
2%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 5%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 2.1%
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน <1%
$8,711,952 ปริมาณ
$8,711,952 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$2,478,058 ปริมาณ
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$1,334,309 ปริมาณ
5%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$1,611,069 ปริมาณ
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$1,774,445 ปริมาณ
2%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$1,514,390 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has dashed near-term easing hopes. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy price spike amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 hold at 3.5%-3.75% and dot plot signaling just one 2026 cut later in the year reinforce this hawkish stance. A dramatic cooldown in May CPI (due June 10) or weakening April jobs data could challenge this consensus, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,711,952วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has dashed near-term easing hopes. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy price spike amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 hold at 3.5%-3.75% and dot plot signaling just one 2026 cut later in the year reinforce this hawkish stance. A dramatic cooldown in May CPI (due June 10) or weakening April jobs data could challenge this consensus, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,711,952วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has dashed near-term easing hopes. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy price spike amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 hold at 3.5%-3.75% and dot plot signaling just one 2026 cut later in the year reinforce this hawkish stance. A dramatic cooldown in May CPI (due June 10) or weakening April jobs data could challenge this consensus, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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