Recent US inflation data, including the May 2026 CPI print at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest pace in over three years—with core measures at 2.9%, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy. This acceleration, linked to energy prices and prior tariff effects, has reduced the scope for near-term easing at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The resulting 65.5% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause aligns with a firm labor market and communications signaling a data-dependent stance, while alternatives incorporating cuts remain discounted. Markets continue to monitor incoming PCE and employment releases ahead of the June decision for any shifts in the rate path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 70%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
5%
Cut–Pause–Cut
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
17%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
5%
Other
17%
Pause–Pause–Pause 70%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$181 ปริมาณ
5%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 ปริมาณ
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 ปริมาณ
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 ปริมาณ
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$895 ปริมาณ
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 ปริมาณ
17%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 ปริมาณ
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 ปริมาณ
5%
Other
$169 ปริมาณ
17%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent US inflation data, including the May 2026 CPI print at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest pace in over three years—with core measures at 2.9%, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy. This acceleration, linked to energy prices and prior tariff effects, has reduced the scope for near-term easing at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The resulting 65.5% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause aligns with a firm labor market and communications signaling a data-dependent stance, while alternatives incorporating cuts remain discounted. Markets continue to monitor incoming PCE and employment releases ahead of the June decision for any shifts in the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,252วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent US inflation data, including the May 2026 CPI print at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest pace in over three years—with core measures at 2.9%, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy. This acceleration, linked to energy prices and prior tariff effects, has reduced the scope for near-term easing at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The resulting 65.5% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause aligns with a firm labor market and communications signaling a data-dependent stance, while alternatives incorporating cuts remain discounted. Markets continue to monitor incoming PCE and employment releases ahead of the June decision for any shifts in the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,252วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US inflation data, including the May 2026 CPI print at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest pace in over three years—with core measures at 2.9%, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy. This acceleration, linked to energy prices and prior tariff effects, has reduced the scope for near-term easing at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The resulting 65.5% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause aligns with a firm labor market and communications signaling a data-dependent stance, while alternatives incorporating cuts remain discounted. Markets continue to monitor incoming PCE and employment releases ahead of the June decision for any shifts in the rate path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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