Polymarket traders' 79% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflects resilient U.S. economic data tempering rate-cut expectations, with the benchmark held steady at 3.50%-3.75% since the March 18 decision. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% and above consensus—driven by energy surges amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment edged to 4.3%. FOMC minutes released April 8 highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists above 2%. The March dot plot still envisions one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, likely later, ahead of April 28-29 and June data releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 79%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 14%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 4.5%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 2.3%
$3,716,939 ปริมาณ
$3,716,939 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
2%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
14%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
79%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
4%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 79%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 14%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 4.5%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 2.3%
$3,716,939 ปริมาณ
$3,716,939 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
$172,112 ปริมาณ
2%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$123,099 ปริมาณ
14%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$188,267 ปริมาณ
79%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$3,032,896 ปริมาณ
4%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$200,564 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 79% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflects resilient U.S. economic data tempering rate-cut expectations, with the benchmark held steady at 3.50%-3.75% since the March 18 decision. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% and above consensus—driven by energy surges amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment edged to 4.3%. FOMC minutes released April 8 highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists above 2%. The March dot plot still envisions one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, likely later, ahead of April 28-29 and June data releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,716,939วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 79% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflects resilient U.S. economic data tempering rate-cut expectations, with the benchmark held steady at 3.50%-3.75% since the March 18 decision. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% and above consensus—driven by energy surges amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment edged to 4.3%. FOMC minutes released April 8 highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists above 2%. The March dot plot still envisions one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, likely later, ahead of April 28-29 and June data releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,716,939วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' 79% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflects resilient U.S. economic data tempering rate-cut expectations, with the benchmark held steady at 3.50%-3.75% since the March 18 decision. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% and above consensus—driven by energy surges amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment edged to 4.3%. FOMC minutes released April 8 highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists above 2%. The March dot plot still envisions one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, likely later, ahead of April 28-29 and June data releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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