Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting solid economic expansion and stubbornly elevated inflation from the April 2026 Consumer Price Index, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—prompting the Fed to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late April amid internal divisions. Recent job gains and resilient activity have solidified the pause consensus, aligning with CME FedWatch signals of limited near-term adjustment risks. Challenges could arise from softer May CPI data (due June 10) or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially tilting odds toward a 25 basis point cut if disinflation resumes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนกรกฎาคม?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 4.2%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 2.9%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 1.1%
$5,370,421 ปริมาณ
$5,370,421 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
4%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
3%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
<1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 4.2%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 2.9%
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน 1.1%
$5,370,421 ปริมาณ
$5,370,421 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
ลดมากกว่า 50 จุดฐาน
$516,064 ปริมาณ
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$398,977 ปริมาณ
4%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$623,114 ปริมาณ
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$3,364,112 ปริมาณ
3%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$468,153 ปริมาณ
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting solid economic expansion and stubbornly elevated inflation from the April 2026 Consumer Price Index, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—prompting the Fed to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late April amid internal divisions. Recent job gains and resilient activity have solidified the pause consensus, aligning with CME FedWatch signals of limited near-term adjustment risks. Challenges could arise from softer May CPI data (due June 10) or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially tilting odds toward a 25 basis point cut if disinflation resumes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,370,421วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting solid economic expansion and stubbornly elevated inflation from the April 2026 Consumer Price Index, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—prompting the Fed to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late April amid internal divisions. Recent job gains and resilient activity have solidified the pause consensus, aligning with CME FedWatch signals of limited near-term adjustment risks. Challenges could arise from softer May CPI data (due June 10) or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially tilting odds toward a 25 basis point cut if disinflation resumes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,370,421วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting solid economic expansion and stubbornly elevated inflation from the April 2026 Consumer Price Index, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—prompting the Fed to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late April amid internal divisions. Recent job gains and resilient activity have solidified the pause consensus, aligning with CME FedWatch signals of limited near-term adjustment risks. Challenges could arise from softer May CPI data (due June 10) or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially tilting odds toward a 25 basis point cut if disinflation resumes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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