Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience that have solidified the Fed's cautious policy stance. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 decision to hold steady for a third meeting, bolstered by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—and April's nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Chair Powell's April remarks emphasized data-dependent restraint amid persistent price pressures. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 could challenge this if it signals deceleration, alongside any labor softening before the June 16-17 meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
การตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
พัก–พัก–พัก 97.5%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 1.8%
อื่นๆ 1.3%
$1,040,927 ปริมาณ
$1,040,927 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
98%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
2%
อื่นๆ
1%
พัก–พัก–พัก 97.5%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 1.8%
อื่นๆ 1.3%
$1,040,927 ปริมาณ
$1,040,927 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
$48,228 ปริมาณ
98%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
$23,603 ปริมาณ
2%
อื่นๆ
$223,754 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience that have solidified the Fed's cautious policy stance. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 decision to hold steady for a third meeting, bolstered by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—and April's nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Chair Powell's April remarks emphasized data-dependent restraint amid persistent price pressures. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 could challenge this if it signals deceleration, alongside any labor softening before the June 16-17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,040,927วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience that have solidified the Fed's cautious policy stance. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 decision to hold steady for a third meeting, bolstered by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—and April's nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Chair Powell's April remarks emphasized data-dependent restraint amid persistent price pressures. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 could challenge this if it signals deceleration, alongside any labor softening before the June 16-17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,040,927วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 97.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience that have solidified the Fed's cautious policy stance. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 decision to hold steady for a third meeting, bolstered by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—and April's nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Chair Powell's April remarks emphasized data-dependent restraint amid persistent price pressures. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 could challenge this if it signals deceleration, alongside any labor softening before the June 16-17 meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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