Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid a sharp March CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—and a resilient unemployment rate edging to 4.3%. March dot plot projections maintain a median 3.4% rate by year-end, signaling potential cuts later but reinforcing near-term caution given sticky inflation and solid labor data. Upcoming April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings loom, with risks to this positioning from escalating oil-driven price pressures prompting hikes or unexpected economic softening spurring an early cut.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
การตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
พัก–พัก–พัก 91%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 7%
อื่นๆ 1.4%
หยุด–ลด–หยุด 1.3%
$907,783 ปริมาณ
$907,783 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
91%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
7%
อื่นๆ
1%
หยุด–ลด–หยุด
1%
หยุด–ลด–ลด
1%
พัก–พัก–พัก 91%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 7%
อื่นๆ 1.4%
หยุด–ลด–หยุด 1.3%
$907,783 ปริมาณ
$907,783 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
$32,968 ปริมาณ
91%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
$15,303 ปริมาณ
7%
อื่นๆ
$216,634 ปริมาณ
1%
หยุด–ลด–หยุด
$132,599 ปริมาณ
1%
หยุด–ลด–ลด
$510,280 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid a sharp March CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—and a resilient unemployment rate edging to 4.3%. March dot plot projections maintain a median 3.4% rate by year-end, signaling potential cuts later but reinforcing near-term caution given sticky inflation and solid labor data. Upcoming April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings loom, with risks to this positioning from escalating oil-driven price pressures prompting hikes or unexpected economic softening spurring an early cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$907,783วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid a sharp March CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—and a resilient unemployment rate edging to 4.3%. March dot plot projections maintain a median 3.4% rate by year-end, signaling potential cuts later but reinforcing near-term caution given sticky inflation and solid labor data. Upcoming April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings loom, with risks to this positioning from escalating oil-driven price pressures prompting hikes or unexpected economic softening spurring an early cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$907,783วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid a sharp March CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—and a resilient unemployment rate edging to 4.3%. March dot plot projections maintain a median 3.4% rate by year-end, signaling potential cuts later but reinforcing near-term caution given sticky inflation and solid labor data. Upcoming April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings loom, with risks to this positioning from escalating oil-driven price pressures prompting hikes or unexpected economic softening spurring an early cut.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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