Persistent above-target inflation, highlighted by March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient economic growth and a stable labor market at 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds for pause-pause-pause across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting reinforced this path, as policymakers cited balanced risks and diminished prospects for near-term easing. Trader consensus in these real-money markets reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of limited room for cuts absent clearer disinflation. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation readings or a material labor market softening could still introduce volatility and shift probabilities toward mixed outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.9%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.2%
$54,187 ปริมาณ
$54,187 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.9%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.2%
$54,187 ปริมาณ
$54,187 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,808 ปริมาณ
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 ปริมาณ
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 ปริมาณ
1%
Other
$1,967 ปริมาณ
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent above-target inflation, highlighted by March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient economic growth and a stable labor market at 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds for pause-pause-pause across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting reinforced this path, as policymakers cited balanced risks and diminished prospects for near-term easing. Trader consensus in these real-money markets reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of limited room for cuts absent clearer disinflation. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation readings or a material labor market softening could still introduce volatility and shift probabilities toward mixed outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$54,187วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent above-target inflation, highlighted by March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient economic growth and a stable labor market at 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds for pause-pause-pause across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting reinforced this path, as policymakers cited balanced risks and diminished prospects for near-term easing. Trader consensus in these real-money markets reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of limited room for cuts absent clearer disinflation. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation readings or a material labor market softening could still introduce volatility and shift probabilities toward mixed outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$54,187วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent above-target inflation, highlighted by March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient economic growth and a stable labor market at 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds for pause-pause-pause across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting reinforced this path, as policymakers cited balanced risks and diminished prospects for near-term easing. Trader consensus in these real-money markets reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of limited room for cuts absent clearer disinflation. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation readings or a material labor market softening could still introduce volatility and shift probabilities toward mixed outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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