Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses through the April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast policy amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The April 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence in his press conference, as March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the hottest since 2024—and April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Sticky core PCE nowcasting near 3.7% has dashed near-term rate-cut hopes, pricing out easing until late 2026; traders eye tomorrow's April CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC for potential shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 89%
Pause–Pause–Cut 7.1%
Other 4.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.8%
$48,311 ปริมาณ
$48,311 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
89%
Pause–Pause–Cut
9%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 89%
Pause–Pause–Cut 7.1%
Other 4.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.8%
$48,311 ปริมาณ
$48,311 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,119 ปริมาณ
89%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,562 ปริมาณ
9%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,505 ปริมาณ
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,575 ปริมาณ
1%
Other
$1,565 ปริมาณ
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses through the April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast policy amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The April 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence in his press conference, as March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the hottest since 2024—and April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Sticky core PCE nowcasting near 3.7% has dashed near-term rate-cut hopes, pricing out easing until late 2026; traders eye tomorrow's April CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC for potential shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,311วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses through the April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast policy amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The April 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence in his press conference, as March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the hottest since 2024—and April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Sticky core PCE nowcasting near 3.7% has dashed near-term rate-cut hopes, pricing out easing until late 2026; traders eye tomorrow's April CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC for potential shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,311วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses through the April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast policy amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The April 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence in his press conference, as March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the hottest since 2024—and April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Sticky core PCE nowcasting near 3.7% has dashed near-term rate-cut hopes, pricing out easing until late 2026; traders eye tomorrow's April CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC for potential shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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