Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate target of 3.50%–3.75% amid resilient economic data. The March 17-18 FOMC held rates unchanged, with updated dot-plot projections elevating median core PCE inflation to 2.7% for 2026 and signaling just one cut for the year. Recent catalysts include March CPI rising 1.1% not seasonally adjusted—far above expectations—and the employment report showing unemployment dipping to 4.3% with gains in health care and construction, reinforcing sticky inflation and a robust labor market. Upcoming April FOMC looms as the next key test, with traders pricing near-certainty of no change.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 5.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
5%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 5.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$993 ปริมาณ
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$727 ปริมาณ
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 ปริมาณ
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,401 ปริมาณ
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$944 ปริมาณ
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$545 ปริมาณ
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$755 ปริมาณ
5%
Other
$906 ปริมาณ
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate target of 3.50%–3.75% amid resilient economic data. The March 17-18 FOMC held rates unchanged, with updated dot-plot projections elevating median core PCE inflation to 2.7% for 2026 and signaling just one cut for the year. Recent catalysts include March CPI rising 1.1% not seasonally adjusted—far above expectations—and the employment report showing unemployment dipping to 4.3% with gains in health care and construction, reinforcing sticky inflation and a robust labor market. Upcoming April FOMC looms as the next key test, with traders pricing near-certainty of no change.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,755วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate target of 3.50%–3.75% amid resilient economic data. The March 17-18 FOMC held rates unchanged, with updated dot-plot projections elevating median core PCE inflation to 2.7% for 2026 and signaling just one cut for the year. Recent catalysts include March CPI rising 1.1% not seasonally adjusted—far above expectations—and the employment report showing unemployment dipping to 4.3% with gains in health care and construction, reinforcing sticky inflation and a robust labor market. Upcoming April FOMC looms as the next key test, with traders pricing near-certainty of no change.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,755วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate target of 3.50%–3.75% amid resilient economic data. The March 17-18 FOMC held rates unchanged, with updated dot-plot projections elevating median core PCE inflation to 2.7% for 2026 and signaling just one cut for the year. Recent catalysts include March CPI rising 1.1% not seasonally adjusted—far above expectations—and the employment report showing unemployment dipping to 4.3% with gains in health care and construction, reinforcing sticky inflation and a robust labor market. Upcoming April FOMC looms as the next key test, with traders pricing near-certainty of no change.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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