Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core readings exceeding consensus, have driven market-implied odds for a 25 basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to approximately 80-86% across prediction markets and futures. The resilient August jobs report, adding 162,000 positions against lower forecasts, combined with accelerating producer prices and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. This repricing reflects aggregated capital at risk rather than forecasts, though economists remain more divided on whether the move signals further hikes. Key near-term catalysts include the FOMC decision itself and subsequent inflation releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$3,322,785 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
79%
October Meeting
83%
$3,322,785 ปริมาณ
September Meeting
$1,571,220 ปริมาณ
79%
October Meeting
$791,565 ปริมาณ
83%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core readings exceeding consensus, have driven market-implied odds for a 25 basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to approximately 80-86% across prediction markets and futures. The resilient August jobs report, adding 162,000 positions against lower forecasts, combined with accelerating producer prices and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. This repricing reflects aggregated capital at risk rather than forecasts, though economists remain more divided on whether the move signals further hikes. Key near-term catalysts include the FOMC decision itself and subsequent inflation releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,322,785วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core readings exceeding consensus, have driven market-implied odds for a 25 basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to approximately 80-86% across prediction markets and futures. The resilient August jobs report, adding 162,000 positions against lower forecasts, combined with accelerating producer prices and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. This repricing reflects aggregated capital at risk rather than forecasts, though economists remain more divided on whether the move signals further hikes. Key near-term catalysts include the FOMC decision itself and subsequent inflation releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,322,785วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core readings exceeding consensus, have driven market-implied odds for a 25 basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to approximately 80-86% across prediction markets and futures. The resilient August jobs report, adding 162,000 positions against lower forecasts, combined with accelerating producer prices and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. This repricing reflects aggregated capital at risk rather than forecasts, though economists remain more divided on whether the move signals further hikes. Key near-term catalysts include the FOMC decision itself and subsequent inflation releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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