Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, held steady at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid divergent inflation and labor signals. March 2026 CPI inflation surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while yesterday's April jobs report added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating modest expectations—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring resilient job growth. Policymakers signal data dependence, with some openness to hikes if disinflation falters; key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC, where Treasury yields and CME FedWatch paths will gauge shifting hike risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$144,997 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
7%
September Meeting
17%
October Meeting
14%
$144,997 ปริมาณ
June Meeting
$12,492 ปริมาณ
1%
July Meeting
$755 ปริมาณ
7%
September Meeting
$49 ปริมาณ
17%
October Meeting
$392 ปริมาณ
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, held steady at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid divergent inflation and labor signals. March 2026 CPI inflation surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while yesterday's April jobs report added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating modest expectations—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring resilient job growth. Policymakers signal data dependence, with some openness to hikes if disinflation falters; key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC, where Treasury yields and CME FedWatch paths will gauge shifting hike risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$144,997วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, held steady at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid divergent inflation and labor signals. March 2026 CPI inflation surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while yesterday's April jobs report added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating modest expectations—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring resilient job growth. Policymakers signal data dependence, with some openness to hikes if disinflation falters; key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC, where Treasury yields and CME FedWatch paths will gauge shifting hike risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$144,997วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, held steady at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid divergent inflation and labor signals. March 2026 CPI inflation surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while yesterday's April jobs report added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating modest expectations—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring resilient job growth. Policymakers signal data dependence, with some openness to hikes if disinflation falters; key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC, where Treasury yields and CME FedWatch paths will gauge shifting hike risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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