Recent indirect US-Iran contacts via Qatari mediators on the UN General Assembly sidelines in late September 2026 have sustained trader focus on Qatar as a likely venue, though no formal senior meeting has materialized. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner engaged Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi through intermediaries on issues including the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and a potential ceasefire extension, following the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding. President Trump publicly mixed threats of further action with expressions of momentum for talks, later rejecting Iran's seven-day proposal while signaling openness to continued mediation. These stalled developments, amid the broader regional conflict that began in February, underpin the leading "No Meeting by December 31" probability, with Qatar positioned ahead of other neutral or regional sites like Pakistan, Oman, Switzerland, and the UAE due to its established intermediary role.