Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that the president will serve through 2026, driven by the absence of active congressional impeachment proceedings, sustained legislative priorities, and no reported health issues that would activate succession protocols. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where early-term departures remain uncommon absent major scandals or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes include formal House impeachment votes followed by Senate conviction, invocation of constitutional removal procedures due to incapacity, or a voluntary resignation amid unforeseen political or personal developments within the resolution window.