Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability that President-elect Trump will not reduce the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by projections that his core agenda—extending 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions at a $4-5 trillion cost over a decade—will widen fiscal shortfalls despite proposed tariffs for revenue and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) commission targeting waste. Recent analyses from Penn Wharton Budget Model and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecast Trump's policies adding $5-7.5 trillion to deficits through 2035, outpacing baseline Congressional Budget Office estimates of 6% GDP deficits amid sticky inflation and entitlements growth. Key catalysts include January cabinet confirmations, the FY2026 budget proposal, and mid-2025 debt ceiling debates, where spending restraint details remain unproven.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability that President-elect Trump will not reduce the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by projections that his core agenda—extending 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions at a $4-5 trillion cost over a decade—will widen fiscal shortfalls despite proposed tariffs for revenue and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) commission targeting waste. Recent analyses from Penn Wharton Budget Model and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecast Trump's policies adding $5-7.5 trillion to deficits through 2035, outpacing baseline Congressional Budget Office estimates of 6% GDP deficits amid sticky inflation and entitlements growth. Key catalysts include January cabinet confirmations, the FY2026 budget proposal, and mid-2025 debt ceiling debates, where spending restraint details remain unproven.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability that President-elect Trump will not reduce the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by projections that his core agenda—extending 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions at a $4-5 trillion cost over a decade—will widen fiscal shortfalls despite proposed tariffs for revenue and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) commission targeting waste. Recent analyses from Penn Wharton Budget Model and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecast Trump's policies adding $5-7.5 trillion to deficits through 2035, outpacing baseline Congressional Budget Office estimates of 6% GDP deficits amid sticky inflation and entitlements growth. Key catalysts include January cabinet confirmations, the FY2026 budget proposal, and mid-2025 debt ceiling debates, where spending restraint details remain unproven.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability that President-elect Trump will not reduce the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by projections that his core agenda—extending 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions at a $4-5 trillion cost over a decade—will widen fiscal shortfalls despite proposed tariffs for revenue and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) commission targeting waste. Recent analyses from Penn Wharton Budget Model and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecast Trump's policies adding $5-7.5 trillion to deficits through 2035, outpacing baseline Congressional Budget Office estimates of 6% GDP deficits amid sticky inflation and entitlements growth. Key catalysts include January cabinet confirmations, the FY2026 budget proposal, and mid-2025 debt ceiling debates, where spending restraint details remain unproven.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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