Trader consensus prices a 61% implied probability on House impeachment of President-elect Trump before January 20, 2029, driven by the Republican narrow House majority—projected at 220-215 following the 2024 elections—which requires Democrats to secure just a handful of GOP defections for a simple-majority vote. Recent catalysts include Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries' post-election vows to pursue accountability for potential executive overreach, such as mass deportations or controversial pardons, amid GOP internal tensions from withdrawn nominations like Matt Gaetz for attorney general over an ethics probe. Trump's history of two prior impeachments and upcoming January Speaker election and confirmation hearings heighten risks of procedural disruptions or moderate Republican breaks, though Senate conviction remains a higher bar with GOP control.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
$11,237 Объем
$11,237 Объем
$11,237 Объем
$11,237 Объем
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 61% implied probability on House impeachment of President-elect Trump before January 20, 2029, driven by the Republican narrow House majority—projected at 220-215 following the 2024 elections—which requires Democrats to secure just a handful of GOP defections for a simple-majority vote. Recent catalysts include Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries' post-election vows to pursue accountability for potential executive overreach, such as mass deportations or controversial pardons, amid GOP internal tensions from withdrawn nominations like Matt Gaetz for attorney general over an ethics probe. Trump's history of two prior impeachments and upcoming January Speaker election and confirmation hearings heighten risks of procedural disruptions or moderate Republican breaks, though Senate conviction remains a higher bar with GOP control.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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