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Геополитика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Market icon
Геополитика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

июн. 30

сент. 30

дек. 31

июн. 30, 2027

июн. 30

сент. 30

дек. 31

июн. 30, 2027

13% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
13% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and prefers unification without force if possible, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability of no invasion by June 30. This aligns with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since late February—the lowest monthly total since President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration—following large-scale "Justice Mission 2025" blockade simulations in December. Ongoing PLA leadership purges and economic headwinds further erode short-term invasion feasibility, despite continued cross-strait coercion, U.S. arms sales, and distractions from Middle East conflicts. Traders price in sustained deterrence via U.S.-Japan-Taiwan alignment, though escalation risks persist ahead of potential Xi-Trump diplomacy.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$9,173
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and prefers unification without force if possible, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability of no invasion by June 30. This aligns with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since late February—the lowest monthly total since President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration—following large-scale "Justice Mission 2025" blockade simulations in December. Ongoing PLA leadership purges and economic headwinds further erode short-term invasion feasibility, despite continued cross-strait coercion, U.S. arms sales, and distractions from Middle East conflicts. Traders price in sustained deterrence via U.S.-Japan-Taiwan alignment, though escalation risks persist ahead of potential Xi-Trump diplomacy.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$9,173
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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«Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 13% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 13¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 13%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

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Текущая вероятность для «Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?» составляет 13% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 13%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

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