Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 51.5% to retain or flip Senate control in the 2026 midterms, driven by historical midterm losses for the president's party—currently Republicans under Trump—offset by a map where Republicans defend 22 seats versus Democrats' 13. The razor-thin margin reflects uncertainty in 10 battlegrounds including Maine (Collins), North Carolina (open Tillis seat), Texas (Cornyn primary), Florida (special for Moody), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). Recent polls underscore the contest: Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by 8 points in North Carolina (March), Ashley Moody holds double-digit edges over Democrats in Florida (April 2), and Texas GOP runoff pits Cornyn against surging Ken Paxton (Paxton up 5 March). Texas primary outcome on May 26 and emerging national polling on Trump administration policies like recent shutdown threats could tip the balance toward separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая партия победит в Сенате в 2026 году?
Какая партия победит в Сенате в 2026 году?
$1,423,170 Объем
$1,423,170 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Заработай 4 %
Демократическая партия
52%
Республиканская партия
49%
$1,423,170 Объем
$1,423,170 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Заработай 4 %
Демократическая партия
$708,694 Объем
52%
Республиканская партия
$714,476 Объем
49%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 51.5% to retain or flip Senate control in the 2026 midterms, driven by historical midterm losses for the president's party—currently Republicans under Trump—offset by a map where Republicans defend 22 seats versus Democrats' 13. The razor-thin margin reflects uncertainty in 10 battlegrounds including Maine (Collins), North Carolina (open Tillis seat), Texas (Cornyn primary), Florida (special for Moody), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). Recent polls underscore the contest: Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by 8 points in North Carolina (March), Ashley Moody holds double-digit edges over Democrats in Florida (April 2), and Texas GOP runoff pits Cornyn against surging Ken Paxton (Paxton up 5 March). Texas primary outcome on May 26 and emerging national polling on Trump administration policies like recent shutdown threats could tip the balance toward separation.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Открытие рынка: Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ET
Объем
$1,423,170Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 51.5% to retain or flip Senate control in the 2026 midterms, driven by historical midterm losses for the president's party—currently Republicans under Trump—offset by a map where Republicans defend 22 seats versus Democrats' 13. The razor-thin margin reflects uncertainty in 10 battlegrounds including Maine (Collins), North Carolina (open Tillis seat), Texas (Cornyn primary), Florida (special for Moody), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). Recent polls underscore the contest: Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by 8 points in North Carolina (March), Ashley Moody holds double-digit edges over Democrats in Florida (April 2), and Texas GOP runoff pits Cornyn against surging Ken Paxton (Paxton up 5 March). Texas primary outcome on May 26 and emerging national polling on Trump administration policies like recent shutdown threats could tip the balance toward separation.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Объем
$1,423,170Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 51.5% to retain or flip Senate control in the 2026 midterms, driven by historical midterm losses for the president's party—currently Republicans under Trump—offset by a map where Republicans defend 22 seats versus Democrats' 13. The razor-thin margin reflects uncertainty in 10 battlegrounds including Maine (Collins), North Carolina (open Tillis seat), Texas (Cornyn primary), Florida (special for Moody), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). Recent polls underscore the contest: Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by 8 points in North Carolina (March), Ashley Moody holds double-digit edges over Democrats in Florida (April 2), and Texas GOP runoff pits Cornyn against surging Ken Paxton (Paxton up 5 March). Texas primary outcome on May 26 and emerging national polling on Trump administration policies like recent shutdown threats could tip the balance toward separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы