Trader consensus on Polymarket shows low implied probabilities for any countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, driven by the absence of official announcements or diplomatic commitments from primary sources like foreign ministries or UN statements. No verified developments have emerged since initial speculation in secondary reports last month, which distinguished the proposed board from established bodies such as the UN Peacebuilding Commission. Recent G20 discussions on global security touched on cooperative frameworks but yielded no specifics on this entity. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions in late March could introduce catalysts, though historical base rates for swift international board formations remain near zero amid geopolitical tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,954,581 Объем
Россия
2%
Индия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Великобритания
2%
Италия
2%
Испания
1%
Бразилия
1%
Бельгия
1%
Германия
1%
Швеция
1%
Норвегия
1%
Франция
1%
Финляндия
1%
Дания
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Швейцария
1%
Китай
1%
$1,954,581 Объем
Россия
2%
Индия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Великобритания
2%
Италия
2%
Испания
1%
Бразилия
1%
Бельгия
1%
Германия
1%
Швеция
1%
Норвегия
1%
Франция
1%
Финляндия
1%
Дания
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Швейцария
1%
Китай
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows low implied probabilities for any countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, driven by the absence of official announcements or diplomatic commitments from primary sources like foreign ministries or UN statements. No verified developments have emerged since initial speculation in secondary reports last month, which distinguished the proposed board from established bodies such as the UN Peacebuilding Commission. Recent G20 discussions on global security touched on cooperative frameworks but yielded no specifics on this entity. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions in late March could introduce catalysts, though historical base rates for swift international board formations remain near zero amid geopolitical tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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