Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities to countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, reflecting scant credible reports of its formation or membership processes. No primary sources, such as official diplomatic statements or international organization announcements, confirm the board's status or active recruitment, distinguishing this from speculation in online discussions. Recent web and social media scans reveal no breakthroughs, with sentiment driven by historical precedents of slow multilateral institution-building, like UN panels. Traders weigh high uncertainty amid global tensions; upcoming UN General Assembly sessions in late March could catalyze developments, but rapid shifts remain possible given the lack of confirmed catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,741,160 Объем
Индия
5%
Россия
3%
Бразилия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Германия
2%
Великобритания
1%
Бельгия
1%
Италия
1%
Норвегия
1%
Швеция
1%
Франция
1%
Испания
1%
Финляндия
1%
Дания
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Швейцария
1%
Китай
1%
$1,741,160 Объем
Индия
5%
Россия
3%
Бразилия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Германия
2%
Великобритания
1%
Бельгия
1%
Италия
1%
Норвегия
1%
Швеция
1%
Франция
1%
Испания
1%
Финляндия
1%
Дания
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Швейцария
1%
Китай
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities to countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, reflecting scant credible reports of its formation or membership processes. No primary sources, such as official diplomatic statements or international organization announcements, confirm the board's status or active recruitment, distinguishing this from speculation in online discussions. Recent web and social media scans reveal no breakthroughs, with sentiment driven by historical precedents of slow multilateral institution-building, like UN panels. Traders weigh high uncertainty amid global tensions; upcoming UN General Assembly sessions in late March could catalyze developments, but rapid shifts remain possible given the lack of confirmed catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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