Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on the absence of official confirmations from founding members, with probabilities clustered low across candidates like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Indonesia amid stalled diplomatic outreach. Primary diplomatic cables and statements reveal exploratory talks but no binding commitments, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Latin America complicate consensus. Recent UN General Assembly side meetings yielded vague endorsements without timelines, reinforcing trader caution drawn from the wisdom of crowds. A potential late-March virtual summit of initiators could shift dynamics, though historical delays in similar multilateral forums suggest limited upside for resolution before deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,827,914 Объем
Россия
2%
Индия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Великобритания
2%
Италия
2%
Бразилия
1%
Германия
1%
Бельгия
1%
Швеция
1%
Норвегия
1%
Франция
1%
Испания
1%
Финляндия
1%
Дания
1%
Швейцария
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Китай
1%
$1,827,914 Объем
Россия
2%
Индия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Великобритания
2%
Италия
2%
Бразилия
1%
Германия
1%
Бельгия
1%
Швеция
1%
Норвегия
1%
Франция
1%
Испания
1%
Финляндия
1%
Дания
1%
Швейцария
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Китай
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 20, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on the absence of official confirmations from founding members, with probabilities clustered low across candidates like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Indonesia amid stalled diplomatic outreach. Primary diplomatic cables and statements reveal exploratory talks but no binding commitments, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Latin America complicate consensus. Recent UN General Assembly side meetings yielded vague endorsements without timelines, reinforcing trader caution drawn from the wisdom of crowds. A potential late-March virtual summit of initiators could shift dynamics, though historical delays in similar multilateral forums suggest limited upside for resolution before deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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