Trader sentiment on countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on official invitations extended last week by the Saudi-led initiative's secretariat, with confirmed acceptances from UAE and Bahrain boosting yes shares for those markets. Recent diplomatic cables leaked via state media highlight Qatar and Jordan's interest amid Gulf reconciliation talks, while Turkey's president signaled support in a February speech, lifting its implied probability. Uncertainties persist over Western nations like the UK, pending parliamentary reviews. Key upcoming events include a March 15 virtual summit and March 28 deadline for formal ratifications, which could catalyze shifts in trader consensus reflecting real-money bets on diplomatic momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,886,160 Объем
Индия
3%
Россия
3%
Бразилия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Великобритания
2%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
1%
Германия
1%
Швеция
1%
Норвегия
1%
Франция
1%
Финляндия
1%
Испания
1%
Дания
1%
Швейцария
1%
Китай
1%
Нидерланды
<1%
$1,886,160 Объем
Индия
3%
Россия
3%
Бразилия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Великобритания
2%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
1%
Германия
1%
Швеция
1%
Норвегия
1%
Франция
1%
Финляндия
1%
Испания
1%
Дания
1%
Швейцария
1%
Китай
1%
Нидерланды
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 20, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on official invitations extended last week by the Saudi-led initiative's secretariat, with confirmed acceptances from UAE and Bahrain boosting yes shares for those markets. Recent diplomatic cables leaked via state media highlight Qatar and Jordan's interest amid Gulf reconciliation talks, while Turkey's president signaled support in a February speech, lifting its implied probability. Uncertainties persist over Western nations like the UK, pending parliamentary reviews. Key upcoming events include a March 15 virtual summit and March 28 deadline for formal ratifications, which could catalyze shifts in trader consensus reflecting real-money bets on diplomatic momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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