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Геополитика·Иран

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Market icon
Геополитика·Иран

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

апр. 30

апр. 30

$171,007 Объем

30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$171,007 Объем

Polymarket

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

$29,043 Объем

97%

Ras Tanura

$13,261 Объем

33%

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$13,936 Объем

33%

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$12,871 Объем

30%

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$20,931 Объем

28%

Al Zour Refinery

$5,578 Объем

20%

East–West Pipeline

$6,701 Объем

20%

Khurais Field

$5,879 Объем

20%

Ruwais Refinery

$19,217 Объем

16%

Ghawar Field

$3,112 Объем

14%

Safaniya Field

$5,050 Объем

15%

Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)

$27,281 Объем

7%

Leviathan Field

$4,935 Объем

5%

Burj Khalifa

$3,214 Объем

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes degrading Iran's missile launchers, navy, and infrastructure—including recent hits on petrochemical and steel plants—Iran has sustained limited retaliatory drone and missile barrages against US bases, Israeli targets, and Gulf assets like Kuwait's airport, Qatar-area tankers, and regional refineries. On April 4, Iran downed a US F-15 over its territory, prompting a high-risk search for a missing airman, while President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 6 or risk attacks on bridges and power plants. With capabilities heavily reduced and rejecting temporary ceasefires, trader consensus weighs Iran's potential pre-deadline strikes on US forces, Israel, or Gulf states amid April 6 risks of ground operations or wider escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$171,007
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes degrading Iran's missile launchers, navy, and infrastructure—including recent hits on petrochemical and steel plants—Iran has sustained limited retaliatory drone and missile barrages against US bases, Israeli targets, and Gulf assets like Kuwait's airport, Qatar-area tankers, and regional refineries. On April 4, Iran downed a US F-15 over its territory, prompting a high-risk search for a missing airman, while President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 6 or risk attacks on bridges and power plants. With capabilities heavily reduced and rejecting temporary ceasefires, trader consensus weighs Iran's potential pre-deadline strikes on US forces, Israel, or Gulf states amid April 6 risks of ground operations or wider escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$171,007
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 14 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery» с 97%, за ним следует «Ras Tanura» с 33%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 97¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 97%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $171K с момента запуска рынка Mar 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?», просмотри 14 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» — «Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery» с 97%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 97%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Ras Tanura» с 33%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.