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Геополитика·Иран

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Market icon
Геополитика·Иран

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

апр. 30

апр. 30

$174,431 Объем

30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$174,431 Объем

Polymarket

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

$29,820 Объем

96%

Ras Tanura

$14,579 Объем

35%

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$12,948 Объем

34%

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$13,936 Объем

32%

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$20,931 Объем

27%

Safaniya Field

$5,074 Объем

21%

East–West Pipeline

$6,736 Объем

20%

Al Zour Refinery

$5,589 Объем

20%

Khurais Field

$5,999 Объем

20%

Ruwais Refinery

$19,229 Объем

16%

Ghawar Field

$3,128 Объем

14%

Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)

$28,209 Объем

7%

Leviathan Field

$5,014 Объем

5%

Burj Khalifa

$3,239 Объем

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Iran's ongoing military exchanges with the United States and Israel, now in its sixth week since U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian command centers, air defenses, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—have defined trader consensus on potential retaliation targets by April 30. Recent escalations include Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside downing a U.S. F-15 on April 3 amid combat search and rescue operations. President Trump's April 6 deadline demands Iran reopen the strait or face strikes on power plants and desalination facilities, prompting Iranian vows of broader assaults on regional U.S. allies and energy infrastructure if hostilities intensify, heightening uncertainty around escalation paths like Gulf states or Cyprus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$174,431
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Iran's ongoing military exchanges with the United States and Israel, now in its sixth week since U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian command centers, air defenses, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—have defined trader consensus on potential retaliation targets by April 30. Recent escalations include Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside downing a U.S. F-15 on April 3 amid combat search and rescue operations. President Trump's April 6 deadline demands Iran reopen the strait or face strikes on power plants and desalination facilities, prompting Iranian vows of broader assaults on regional U.S. allies and energy infrastructure if hostilities intensify, heightening uncertainty around escalation paths like Gulf states or Cyprus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$174,431
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 14 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery» с 96%, за ним следует «Ras Tanura» с 35%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 96¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $174.4K с момента запуска рынка Mar 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?», просмотри 14 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» — «Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery» с 96%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Ras Tanura» с 35%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.