Market icon

США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?

Market icon

США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?

Ended: Feb 28

Ended: Feb 28

28 февраля 99.8%

Январь 2026 <1%

1 февраля <1%

2 февраля <1%

Polymarket

$56,607,534 Объем

28 февраля 99.8%

Январь 2026 <1%

1 февраля <1%

2 февраля <1%

Polymarket

$56,607,534 Объем

Январь 2026

$264,639 Объем

Нет

1 февраля

$891,599 Объем

Нет

2 февраля

$489,907 Объем

Нет

3 февраля

$463,964 Объем

Нет

4 февраля

$999,005 Объем

Нет

5 февраля

$501,897 Объем

Нет

6 февраля

$576,956 Объем

Нет

7 февраля

$648,794 Объем

Нет

8 февраля

$2,612,755 Объем

Нет

9 февраля

$3,494,378 Объем

Нет

10 февраля

$2,824,909 Объем

Нет

11 февраля

$2,583,817 Объем

Нет

12 февраля

$1,154,654 Объем

Нет

13 февраля

$1,200,923 Объем

Нет

14 февраля

$1,111,982 Объем

Нет

15 февраля

$920,532 Объем

Нет

16 февраля

$889,918 Объем

Нет

17 февраля

$1,489,119 Объем

Нет

18 февраля

$1,489,594 Объем

Нет

19 февраля

$1,876,861 Объем

Нет

20 февраля

$2,202,132 Объем

Нет

21 февраля

$1,861,684 Объем

Нет

22 февраля

$3,010,314 Объем

Нет

23 февраля

$2,264,918 Объем

Нет

24 февраля

$2,299,930 Объем

Нет

25 февраля

$2,565,929 Объем

Нет

26 февраля

$3,013,510 Объем

Нет

27 февраля

$4,604,644 Объем

Нет

28 февраля

$5,837,357 Объем

Да

Нет удара до 28 февраля

$2,460,912 Объем

Нет

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$56,607,534
Дата окончания
Feb 28, 2026
Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "28 февраля" at 100%, followed by "Январь 2026" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" has generated $56.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" is "28 февраля" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Январь 2026" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "США нанесут следующий удар по Ирану...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.