No new sovereign state completed formal accession to the Abraham Accords by the July 31, 2026, deadline, producing trader consensus around a 100% probability of “No.” Diplomatic outreach intensified under the second Trump administration, including public calls in May 2026 for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to normalize, yet core obstacles—linkage to Palestinian statehood for Riyadh, ongoing regional instability in Syria and Lebanon, and Sudanese civil war delays—prevented additional signings after Kazakhstan’s November 2025 entry. Somaliland’s earlier pledge remains outside standard recognition parameters. Late-stage developments such as a surprise bilateral agreement or clarification on an existing partial arrangement could still shift resolution if they meet the market’s exact criteria before final settlement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
<1% вероятность
$50,486 Объем
$50,486 Объем
31 июл. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$50,486 Объем
$50,486 Объем
31 июл. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.No new sovereign state completed formal accession to the Abraham Accords by the July 31, 2026, deadline, producing trader consensus around a 100% probability of “No.” Diplomatic outreach intensified under the second Trump administration, including public calls in May 2026 for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to normalize, yet core obstacles—linkage to Palestinian statehood for Riyadh, ongoing regional instability in Syria and Lebanon, and Sudanese civil war delays—prevented additional signings after Kazakhstan’s November 2025 entry. Somaliland’s earlier pledge remains outside standard recognition parameters. Late-stage developments such as a surprise bilateral agreement or clarification on an existing partial arrangement could still shift resolution if they meet the market’s exact criteria before final settlement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 3:10 PM ET
Объем
$50,486Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 3:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.No new sovereign state completed formal accession to the Abraham Accords by the July 31, 2026, deadline, producing trader consensus around a 100% probability of “No.” Diplomatic outreach intensified under the second Trump administration, including public calls in May 2026 for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to normalize, yet core obstacles—linkage to Palestinian statehood for Riyadh, ongoing regional instability in Syria and Lebanon, and Sudanese civil war delays—prevented additional signings after Kazakhstan’s November 2025 entry. Somaliland’s earlier pledge remains outside standard recognition parameters. Late-stage developments such as a surprise bilateral agreement or clarification on an existing partial arrangement could still shift resolution if they meet the market’s exact criteria before final settlement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$50,486Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 3:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
No new sovereign state completed formal accession to the Abraham Accords by the July 31, 2026, deadline, producing trader consensus around a 100% probability of “No.” Diplomatic outreach intensified under the second Trump administration, including public calls in May 2026 for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to normalize, yet core obstacles—linkage to Palestinian statehood for Riyadh, ongoing regional instability in Syria and Lebanon, and Sudanese civil war delays—prevented additional signings after Kazakhstan’s November 2025 entry. Somaliland’s earlier pledge remains outside standard recognition parameters. Late-stage developments such as a surprise bilateral agreement or clarification on an existing partial arrangement could still shift resolution if they meet the market’s exact criteria before final settlement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы