Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31, driven by the complete absence of official State Department announcements or orders for staff withdrawal amid ongoing Israel-Hamas hostilities. The embassy remains fully operational, with routine security measures in place despite elevated travel advisories for the region, reflecting U.S. commitment to its Israeli diplomatic presence relocated in 2018. No credible reports indicate imminent threats like Hezbollah incursions or Iranian strikes warranting such a drastic step, aligning with historical precedents where evacuations occurred only in all-out wars. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden escalations overwhelming defenses, though current evidence suggests minimal risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$37,949 Объем
$37,949 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Да
$37,949 Объем
$37,949 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Открытие рынка: Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Объем
$37,949Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Объем
$37,949Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31, driven by the complete absence of official State Department announcements or orders for staff withdrawal amid ongoing Israel-Hamas hostilities. The embassy remains fully operational, with routine security measures in place despite elevated travel advisories for the region, reflecting U.S. commitment to its Israeli diplomatic presence relocated in 2018. No credible reports indicate imminent threats like Hezbollah incursions or Iranian strikes warranting such a drastic step, aligning with historical precedents where evacuations occurred only in all-out wars. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden escalations overwhelming defenses, though current evidence suggests minimal risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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