Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites, including the Arak heavy-water plant as recently as March 27, 2026, underscore the acute escalation in hostilities since the war began with surprise attacks on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US regional assets, amid reports of internal regime pressures and calls from Israeli officials for an end to European diplomacy with Tehran. No diplomatic channels exist between Israel and Iran, severed since the 1979 revolution, and current military confrontation eliminates any pathway for embassy reopening in 2026. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched animosity and lack of de-escalation signals, though regime instability could theoretically shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоОткроет ли Израиль свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Откроет ли Израиль свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Да
$17,843 Объем
$17,843 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$17,843 Объем
$17,843 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites, including the Arak heavy-water plant as recently as March 27, 2026, underscore the acute escalation in hostilities since the war began with surprise attacks on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US regional assets, amid reports of internal regime pressures and calls from Israeli officials for an end to European diplomacy with Tehran. No diplomatic channels exist between Israel and Iran, severed since the 1979 revolution, and current military confrontation eliminates any pathway for embassy reopening in 2026. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched animosity and lack of de-escalation signals, though regime instability could theoretically shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Объем
$17,843Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites, including the Arak heavy-water plant as recently as March 27, 2026, underscore the acute escalation in hostilities since the war began with surprise attacks on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US regional assets, amid reports of internal regime pressures and calls from Israeli officials for an end to European diplomacy with Tehran. No diplomatic channels exist between Israel and Iran, severed since the 1979 revolution, and current military confrontation eliminates any pathway for embassy reopening in 2026. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched animosity and lack of de-escalation signals, though regime instability could theoretically shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$17,843Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites, including the Arak heavy-water plant as recently as March 27, 2026, underscore the acute escalation in hostilities since the war began with surprise attacks on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US regional assets, amid reports of internal regime pressures and calls from Israeli officials for an end to European diplomacy with Tehran. No diplomatic channels exist between Israel and Iran, severed since the 1979 revolution, and current military confrontation eliminates any pathway for embassy reopening in 2026. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched animosity and lack of de-escalation signals, though regime instability could theoretically shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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