Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities and air defenses, in direct retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage against Israel on October 1—the first such overt attack in over four decades. This calibrated response has held escalation in check so far, with Iran's supreme leader signaling restraint amid proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Iraq and Yemen. The US has conducted strikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen but emphasized de-escalation, while diplomatic talks via Oman and Qatar continue. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot for foreign policy toward Iran, influencing prospects for further military actions by Israel or others before the market deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$3,733,586 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
31 марта
9%
$3,733,586 Объем
31 марта
$3,733,697 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities and air defenses, in direct retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage against Israel on October 1—the first such overt attack in over four decades. This calibrated response has held escalation in check so far, with Iran's supreme leader signaling restraint amid proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Iraq and Yemen. The US has conducted strikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen but emphasized de-escalation, while diplomatic talks via Oman and Qatar continue. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot for foreign policy toward Iran, influencing prospects for further military actions by Israel or others before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$3,733,586Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities and air defenses, in direct retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage against Israel on October 1—the first such overt attack in over four decades. This calibrated response has held escalation in check so far, with Iran's supreme leader signaling restraint amid proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Iraq and Yemen. The US has conducted strikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen but emphasized de-escalation, while diplomatic talks via Oman and Qatar continue. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot for foreign policy toward Iran, influencing prospects for further military actions by Israel or others before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$3,733,586Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities and air defenses, in direct retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage against Israel on October 1—the first such overt attack in over four decades. This calibrated response has held escalation in check so far, with Iran's supreme leader signaling restraint amid proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Iraq and Yemen. The US has conducted strikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen but emphasized de-escalation, while diplomatic talks via Oman and Qatar continue. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot for foreign policy toward Iran, influencing prospects for further military actions by Israel or others before the market deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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