Trader consensus favors the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) capturing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in upcoming National Assembly by-elections, driven by incumbency advantages across most of the roughly dozen contested districts—primarily DPK strongholds like Ansan-si Gap and Asan-si Eul—and robust national support near 45% amid President Lee Jae-myung's administration. Recent March 19-20 polls show DPK leads exceeding 35% in pivotal races such as Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap (50% vs. People Power Party's 14.5%) and Gunsan-si·Gimje-si·Buan-gun Gap (54% vs. 11%), fueled by confirmed vacancies like Ulsan Nam-gu Gap from Kim Sang-wook's March 20 mayoral primary win. PPP's sub-20% favorability limits gains in swing areas, though DPK internal nomination disputes in Yeonsu-gu and Ansan-si elevate 8-9 seats to 38%; resolution awaits June 3 simultaneous local elections, where DPK anticipates a landslide.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКоличество мест, выигранных ДП на дополнительных выборах в Южной Корее?
Количество мест, выигранных ДП на дополнительных выборах в Южной Корее?
10+ 55.5%
8-9 37.9%
6-7 4.0%
2–3 2.4%
$19,867 Объем
$19,867 Объем
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
<1%
2–3
2%
4-5
1%
6-7
4%
8-9
38%
10+
56%
10+ 55.5%
8-9 37.9%
6-7 4.0%
2–3 2.4%
$19,867 Объем
$19,867 Объем
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
$1,927 Объем
<1%
2–3
$3,668 Объем
2%
4-5
$2,140 Объем
1%
6-7
$2,103 Объем
4%
8-9
$2,519 Объем
38%
10+
$7,511 Объем
56%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus favors the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) capturing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in upcoming National Assembly by-elections, driven by incumbency advantages across most of the roughly dozen contested districts—primarily DPK strongholds like Ansan-si Gap and Asan-si Eul—and robust national support near 45% amid President Lee Jae-myung's administration. Recent March 19-20 polls show DPK leads exceeding 35% in pivotal races such as Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap (50% vs. People Power Party's 14.5%) and Gunsan-si·Gimje-si·Buan-gun Gap (54% vs. 11%), fueled by confirmed vacancies like Ulsan Nam-gu Gap from Kim Sang-wook's March 20 mayoral primary win. PPP's sub-20% favorability limits gains in swing areas, though DPK internal nomination disputes in Yeonsu-gu and Ansan-si elevate 8-9 seats to 38%; resolution awaits June 3 simultaneous local elections, where DPK anticipates a landslide.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Открытие рынка: Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Объем
$19,867Дата окончания
Jun 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus favors the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) capturing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in upcoming National Assembly by-elections, driven by incumbency advantages across most of the roughly dozen contested districts—primarily DPK strongholds like Ansan-si Gap and Asan-si Eul—and robust national support near 45% amid President Lee Jae-myung's administration. Recent March 19-20 polls show DPK leads exceeding 35% in pivotal races such as Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap (50% vs. People Power Party's 14.5%) and Gunsan-si·Gimje-si·Buan-gun Gap (54% vs. 11%), fueled by confirmed vacancies like Ulsan Nam-gu Gap from Kim Sang-wook's March 20 mayoral primary win. PPP's sub-20% favorability limits gains in swing areas, though DPK internal nomination disputes in Yeonsu-gu and Ansan-si elevate 8-9 seats to 38%; resolution awaits June 3 simultaneous local elections, where DPK anticipates a landslide.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Объем
$19,867Дата окончания
Jun 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) capturing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in upcoming National Assembly by-elections, driven by incumbency advantages across most of the roughly dozen contested districts—primarily DPK strongholds like Ansan-si Gap and Asan-si Eul—and robust national support near 45% amid President Lee Jae-myung's administration. Recent March 19-20 polls show DPK leads exceeding 35% in pivotal races such as Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap (50% vs. People Power Party's 14.5%) and Gunsan-si·Gimje-si·Buan-gun Gap (54% vs. 11%), fueled by confirmed vacancies like Ulsan Nam-gu Gap from Kim Sang-wook's March 20 mayoral primary win. PPP's sub-20% favorability limits gains in swing areas, though DPK internal nomination disputes in Yeonsu-gu and Ansan-si elevate 8-9 seats to 38%; resolution awaits June 3 simultaneous local elections, where DPK anticipates a landslide.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы