Partido Liberal (PL) leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to hold the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election—renewing 54 seats (two per state)—following its dominant performance in the October 2024 municipal elections, where it won the most mayoral races (over 900) and council seats, signaling robust grassroots organization and voter appeal for Jair Bolsonaro-aligned candidates despite his ineligibility. This recent catalyst has widened PL's edge over PDT (14.6%), which benefits from Northeast strongholds, and challengers like NOVO and MDB, per early polling averages from Quaest and Datafolha. Coalition negotiations, candidate announcements, and economic trends could influence outcomes ahead of the October 2026 vote under the majoritarian system.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСледующие выборы в Сенат Бразилии: большинство мест
Следующие выборы в Сенат Бразилии: большинство мест
PL 61%
БДП (MDB) 17.0%
PDT 14.8%
UNIÃO 8.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
PL
67%
БДП (MDB)
9%
PDT
15%
UNIÃO
9%
PSDB
5%
PODEMOS
5%
PSB
7%
ПП
7%
PSD
2%
PT
7%
NOVO
10%
РЕСПУБЛИКАНОС
9%
PL 61%
БДП (MDB) 17.0%
PDT 14.8%
UNIÃO 8.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
PL
$0 Объем
67%
БДП (MDB)
$0 Объем
9%
PDT
$0 Объем
15%
UNIÃO
$0 Объем
9%
PSDB
$0 Объем
5%
PODEMOS
$0 Объем
5%
PSB
$0 Объем
7%
ПП
$0 Объем
7%
PSD
$0 Объем
2%
PT
$0 Объем
7%
NOVO
$0 Объем
10%
РЕСПУБЛИКАНОС
$0 Объем
9%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Partido Liberal (PL) leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to hold the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election—renewing 54 seats (two per state)—following its dominant performance in the October 2024 municipal elections, where it won the most mayoral races (over 900) and council seats, signaling robust grassroots organization and voter appeal for Jair Bolsonaro-aligned candidates despite his ineligibility. This recent catalyst has widened PL's edge over PDT (14.6%), which benefits from Northeast strongholds, and challengers like NOVO and MDB, per early polling averages from Quaest and Datafolha. Coalition negotiations, candidate announcements, and economic trends could influence outcomes ahead of the October 2026 vote under the majoritarian system.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Oct 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Partido Liberal (PL) leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to hold the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election—renewing 54 seats (two per state)—following its dominant performance in the October 2024 municipal elections, where it won the most mayoral races (over 900) and council seats, signaling robust grassroots organization and voter appeal for Jair Bolsonaro-aligned candidates despite his ineligibility. This recent catalyst has widened PL's edge over PDT (14.6%), which benefits from Northeast strongholds, and challengers like NOVO and MDB, per early polling averages from Quaest and Datafolha. Coalition negotiations, candidate announcements, and economic trends could influence outcomes ahead of the October 2026 vote under the majoritarian system.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Oct 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Partido Liberal (PL) leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to hold the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election—renewing 54 seats (two per state)—following its dominant performance in the October 2024 municipal elections, where it won the most mayoral races (over 900) and council seats, signaling robust grassroots organization and voter appeal for Jair Bolsonaro-aligned candidates despite his ineligibility. This recent catalyst has widened PL's edge over PDT (14.6%), which benefits from Northeast strongholds, and challengers like NOVO and MDB, per early polling averages from Quaest and Datafolha. Coalition negotiations, candidate announcements, and economic trends could influence outcomes ahead of the October 2026 vote under the majoritarian system.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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