Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 87.5% implied probability for the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, driven by its staggering $350 billion private valuation from a recent employee tender offer and the landmark success of Starship Flight 5 on November 19, which demonstrated booster catch capabilities critical for scaling Starlink's satellite constellation. Starlink's path to sustained profitability—targeted by Elon Musk for a potential 2025 spin-off IPO—positions SpaceX to dwarf rivals, outpacing xAI's 25.5% odds amid its rapid $24 billion valuation growth via Colossus supercomputer expansions. Lower probabilities for OpenAI (4.7%) and others reflect smaller valuations and vague timelines, though regulatory hurdles or Musk's aversion to full public listings could introduce uncertainty ahead of key 2025 Starship milestones.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКрупнейшее IPO по рыночной капитализации в 2026 году?
Крупнейшее IPO по рыночной капитализации в 2026 году?
SpaceX 88%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 2.8%
Discord 1.0%
$825,020 Объем
$825,020 Объем

SpaceX
88%

OpenAI
5%

Anthropic
3%

Discord
1%

Databricks
1%

Kraken
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Stripe
<1%

SHEIN
<1%

Revolut
<1%

Waymo
<1%

Perplexity AI
<1%
SpaceX 88%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 2.8%
Discord 1.0%
$825,020 Объем
$825,020 Объем

SpaceX
88%

OpenAI
5%

Anthropic
3%

Discord
1%

Databricks
1%

Kraken
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Stripe
<1%

SHEIN
<1%

Revolut
<1%

Waymo
<1%

Perplexity AI
<1%
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 87.5% implied probability for the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, driven by its staggering $350 billion private valuation from a recent employee tender offer and the landmark success of Starship Flight 5 on November 19, which demonstrated booster catch capabilities critical for scaling Starlink's satellite constellation. Starlink's path to sustained profitability—targeted by Elon Musk for a potential 2025 spin-off IPO—positions SpaceX to dwarf rivals, outpacing xAI's 25.5% odds amid its rapid $24 billion valuation growth via Colossus supercomputer expansions. Lower probabilities for OpenAI (4.7%) and others reflect smaller valuations and vague timelines, though regulatory hurdles or Musk's aversion to full public listings could introduce uncertainty ahead of key 2025 Starship milestones.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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