Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA monitoring showing no verifiable repair or reconstruction activity at those sites through October 2026. The agency lacks access to most locations since mid-2025, leaving the status of approximately 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium unconfirmed, while US intelligence assessments place any potential breakout timeline at roughly one year or more if Iran commits to weaponization. Satellite imagery indicates limited construction at hardened sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, yet no operational enrichment restart has been detected. This combination of degraded infrastructure, sustained international pressure, and extended technical timelines underpins the 96% implied probability that no nuclear device is acquired before 2027. Late shifts could occur through covert reconstitution of surviving centrifuges or material at undeclared locations, or a rapid policy reversal amid ongoing diplomatic efforts.