**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February–March 2026 have substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with U.S. intelligence assessments placing Iran’s breakout timeline at roughly nine to twelve months as of May 2026.** Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since the initial strikes, according to Director of National Intelligence testimony and Iranian statements to the IAEA, while much of the existing stockpile of near-weapons-grade material (including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%) remains inaccessible or buried. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including rounds in early 2026, have focused on limits, verification, and sanctions relief without yielding a final agreement. These factors—combined with restricted IAEA access and the compressed window remaining in 2026—underpin trader consensus that a nuclear weapon is unlikely before the end of 2026. Late diplomatic or military developments could still alter the trajectory.