**Recent US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and February 2026 have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back Iran's estimated breakout timeline.** US intelligence assessments now place the period required to produce weapons-grade material and assemble a deliverable device at roughly nine to twelve months if Tehran decides to pursue that path. IAEA reports through early 2026 confirm no verified ongoing structured nuclear weapons program, no evidence of current weaponization activities, and continued questions over past undeclared activities limited to the early 2000s. Ongoing diplomatic contacts, partial inspector access agreements, and the absence of a leadership decision to weaponize further support trader expectations reflected in the 92.1 percent probability assigned to no acquisition before 2027.