Trader sentiment on Polymarket assigns a leading 35% implied probability to a June SpaceX IPO, fueled by the company's June 2024 tender offer that pegged its valuation at $210 billion—near-record levels signaling optimal timing for public markets before dilution. This edges out September (10.8%) and November (9.3%), as traders anticipate Starlink's revenue predictability enabling a 2025 spin-off or precursor listing, per Elon Musk's recent comments. The 12.4% odds for no IPO before 2027 capture skepticism over regulatory hurdles, capital-intensive Starship program, and Musk's preference for private control amid soaring launch revenues exceeding $10 billion annually. Upcoming Starship tests could shift these market-implied odds higher.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИюнь 35%
Сентябрь 8.3%
Май 6.0%
Апрель 5.1%
$63,505 Объем
$63,505 Объем
Март
1%
Апрель
8%
Май
6%
Июнь
35%
Июль
8%
Август
8%
Сентябрь
11%
Октябрь
4%
Ноябрь
9%
Декабрь
4%
Нет IPO до 2027 года
13%
Июнь 35%
Сентябрь 8.3%
Май 6.0%
Апрель 5.1%
$63,505 Объем
$63,505 Объем
Март
1%
Апрель
8%
Май
6%
Июнь
35%
Июль
8%
Август
8%
Сентябрь
11%
Октябрь
4%
Ноябрь
9%
Декабрь
4%
Нет IPO до 2027 года
13%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket assigns a leading 35% implied probability to a June SpaceX IPO, fueled by the company's June 2024 tender offer that pegged its valuation at $210 billion—near-record levels signaling optimal timing for public markets before dilution. This edges out September (10.8%) and November (9.3%), as traders anticipate Starlink's revenue predictability enabling a 2025 spin-off or precursor listing, per Elon Musk's recent comments. The 12.4% odds for no IPO before 2027 capture skepticism over regulatory hurdles, capital-intensive Starship program, and Musk's preference for private control amid soaring launch revenues exceeding $10 billion annually. Upcoming Starship tests could shift these market-implied odds higher.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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