Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Taipei's April 3 high temperature, split nearly evenly between 23°C or below (41%) and 33°C or higher (40%), driven by an approaching frontal system highlighted in the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) March 29 advisory for the Tomb Sweeping holiday. CWA's latest forecast predicts daytime highs of 19–26°C amid partly cloudy skies with afternoon thundershowers, favoring cooler outcomes through cloud-induced suppression and cooler air advection. However, ensemble model disagreements—some showing delayed frontal arrival allowing pre-frontal subsidence heating and highs exceeding 33°C—sustain the hot-side odds, against April climatological averages of 24–26°C. Daily CWA updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS runs will clarify frontal timing and intensity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Taipei on April 3?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 3?
33°C or higher 40%
26°C 28%
23°C or below 23%
25°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
23°C or below
23%
24°C
18%
25°C
21%
26°C
28%
27°C
16%
28°C
10%
29°C
9%
30°C
15%
31°C
13%
32°C
12%
33°C or higher
40%
33°C or higher 40%
26°C 28%
23°C or below 23%
25°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Объем
23%
24°C
$0 Объем
18%
25°C
$0 Объем
21%
26°C
$0 Объем
28%
27°C
$0 Объем
16%
28°C
$0 Объем
10%
29°C
$0 Объем
9%
30°C
$0 Объем
15%
31°C
$0 Объем
13%
32°C
$0 Объем
12%
33°C or higher
$10 Объем
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Taipei's April 3 high temperature, split nearly evenly between 23°C or below (41%) and 33°C or higher (40%), driven by an approaching frontal system highlighted in the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) March 29 advisory for the Tomb Sweeping holiday. CWA's latest forecast predicts daytime highs of 19–26°C amid partly cloudy skies with afternoon thundershowers, favoring cooler outcomes through cloud-induced suppression and cooler air advection. However, ensemble model disagreements—some showing delayed frontal arrival allowing pre-frontal subsidence heating and highs exceeding 33°C—sustain the hot-side odds, against April climatological averages of 24–26°C. Daily CWA updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS runs will clarify frontal timing and intensity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$10Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Taipei's April 3 high temperature, split nearly evenly between 23°C or below (41%) and 33°C or higher (40%), driven by an approaching frontal system highlighted in the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) March 29 advisory for the Tomb Sweeping holiday. CWA's latest forecast predicts daytime highs of 19–26°C amid partly cloudy skies with afternoon thundershowers, favoring cooler outcomes through cloud-induced suppression and cooler air advection. However, ensemble model disagreements—some showing delayed frontal arrival allowing pre-frontal subsidence heating and highs exceeding 33°C—sustain the hot-side odds, against April climatological averages of 24–26°C. Daily CWA updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS runs will clarify frontal timing and intensity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$10Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Taipei's April 3 high temperature, split nearly evenly between 23°C or below (41%) and 33°C or higher (40%), driven by an approaching frontal system highlighted in the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) March 29 advisory for the Tomb Sweeping holiday. CWA's latest forecast predicts daytime highs of 19–26°C amid partly cloudy skies with afternoon thundershowers, favoring cooler outcomes through cloud-induced suppression and cooler air advection. However, ensemble model disagreements—some showing delayed frontal arrival allowing pre-frontal subsidence heating and highs exceeding 33°C—sustain the hot-side odds, against April climatological averages of 24–26°C. Daily CWA updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS runs will clarify frontal timing and intensity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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