Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to the 80–85 per 100,000 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate for Week 12 (March 22–28, 2026), driven by CDC FluSurv-NET data showing 81.6 per 100,000 as of Week 11 (ending March 21), the third-highest cumulative since the 2010–2011 season. This network tracks laboratory-confirmed cases across 14 states covering about 9% of the U.S. population, with Week 11's weekly admission rate dropping to a preliminary 1.1 per 100,000 (estimated 1.4–1.9 after lags), signaling waning A(H3N2)-dominant activity. Continued decline per CDC surveillance and FluSight forecasts supports stability in this bin. Realistic challenges include rare upward data revisions or an unlikely late surge, though preliminary trends preclude major shifts. Next FluView update expected soon will confirm.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
80–85 99.2%
75–80 <1%
<75 <1%
85–90 <1%
$19,358 Объем
$19,358 Объем
<75
<1%
75–80
<1%
80–85
99%
85–90
<1%
90–95
<1%
95+
<1%
80–85 99.2%
75–80 <1%
<75 <1%
85–90 <1%
$19,358 Объем
$19,358 Объем
<75
<1%
75–80
<1%
80–85
99%
85–90
<1%
90–95
<1%
95+
<1%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to the 80–85 per 100,000 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate for Week 12 (March 22–28, 2026), driven by CDC FluSurv-NET data showing 81.6 per 100,000 as of Week 11 (ending March 21), the third-highest cumulative since the 2010–2011 season. This network tracks laboratory-confirmed cases across 14 states covering about 9% of the U.S. population, with Week 11's weekly admission rate dropping to a preliminary 1.1 per 100,000 (estimated 1.4–1.9 after lags), signaling waning A(H3N2)-dominant activity. Continued decline per CDC surveillance and FluSight forecasts supports stability in this bin. Realistic challenges include rare upward data revisions or an unlikely late surge, though preliminary trends preclude major shifts. Next FluView update expected soon will confirm.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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