Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation and an oil price shock from geopolitical tensions. Today's March nonfarm payrolls report, adding 178,000 jobs—far exceeding 60,000 estimates—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, has further diminished rate-cut expectations by underscoring labor market resilience. The updated dot plot still envisions just one cut for 2026 overall, supporting a higher-for-longer stance. Traders eye April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 meeting as key catalysts that could challenge this positioning if inflation reaccelerates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 88%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 7%
Другое 4.8%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение 1.2%
$719,069 Объем
$719,069 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
88%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
7%
Другое
5%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
1%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 88%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 7%
Другое 4.8%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение 1.2%
$719,069 Объем
$719,069 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
$21,014 Объем
88%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$11,277 Объем
7%
Другое
$211,071 Объем
5%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
$345,747 Объем
1%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
$129,960 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation and an oil price shock from geopolitical tensions. Today's March nonfarm payrolls report, adding 178,000 jobs—far exceeding 60,000 estimates—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, has further diminished rate-cut expectations by underscoring labor market resilience. The updated dot plot still envisions just one cut for 2026 overall, supporting a higher-for-longer stance. Traders eye April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 meeting as key catalysts that could challenge this positioning if inflation reaccelerates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$719,069Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation and an oil price shock from geopolitical tensions. Today's March nonfarm payrolls report, adding 178,000 jobs—far exceeding 60,000 estimates—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, has further diminished rate-cut expectations by underscoring labor market resilience. The updated dot plot still envisions just one cut for 2026 overall, supporting a higher-for-longer stance. Traders eye April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 meeting as key catalysts that could challenge this positioning if inflation reaccelerates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$719,069Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation and an oil price shock from geopolitical tensions. Today's March nonfarm payrolls report, adding 178,000 jobs—far exceeding 60,000 estimates—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, has further diminished rate-cut expectations by underscoring labor market resilience. The updated dot plot still envisions just one cut for 2026 overall, supporting a higher-for-longer stance. Traders eye April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 meeting as key catalysts that could challenge this positioning if inflation reaccelerates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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